Hi MajorD!

Gartman is from the old school, that believes the entire world revolves around the health of the US economy. Therefore if he has become convinced that the US is doomed to suffer through a prolonged recession, then the rest of the world will too. And that is bearish for commodities.

Now there is also the risk of a total financial collapse, and given the panic level of the FED there may be a real chance of that happening, in which case Gartman will be proven correct but so what? We will all be broke and living under martial law by then.

If you are a bull, you take comfort in knowing that the US accounts for just 8% of world copper demand. You accept that consumption of commodities domestically has been in decline for over a year, yet prices have held up very well. You recognize that other markets are growing and displacing that demand from the US. You understand that mine supply is tight and there has not been an overinvestment in development during this cycle. Therefore, the commodities do not have to collapse just because things look ugly in the US.

These high paid types very rarely get it right. How many times has Gartman issued a sell recco right before a big move higher in gold? We all put our pants on one leg at a time...

For the producing mines, a retracement in commodity prices would be a good thing. High costs for energy, concrete, steel, explosives, etc. have trimmed the bottom line for most producers and we will still be cranking out all the silver that the mines can produce for many years, so why not enjoy it if Gartman is at least in part correct.

cheers!

mike