Given below is the latest information on Hurricane Ike that is available from meterologist Chuck Watson.

Regards - VHF

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Updated 9/13 900 EDT. Hurricane Ike made landfall in Galveston in an area with extensive oil infrastructure, namely over 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL)).

Intensity: folks have questioned my landfall estimate, but the data supports it. Examples: Buoy 42035 broke loose from it's mooring, but apparently it passed through the eye and reported valid data. See attached plot (note: it's below the fold) - peak winds 55 kts/gusts to 75 kts. RLOT2 failed at 4z, last report was 50kts/65kts, water level 11ft above normal. The station near Texas City, in the left eye wall, peaked at 60 knots. Surge peaked about 12 feet. All of the data indicates landfall wind speeds were no more than 85 knots 2min average winds. The NHC estimated 110mph/95knts "sustained" (whatever that is; nothing measures a "sustained" wind), which would be about 92 knots 2 min average, but as noted earlier they always err on the high side.

Inland areas do NOT seem to be experiencing significant two minute average winds above hurricane force. Don't be mislead by the media reports of "hurricane force wind gusts". Gusts don't count. Scientific definitions matter. I get "hurricane force wind gusts" in thunderstorms here in Savannah all the time.

Impacts: I think the most severe impacts will be confined to the barrier islands. Galveston probably got whacked hard. But I don't think any of the refineries will suffer major damage, unless something broke that shouldn't have. It looks like Baytown never caught the peak surge. Texas City might have seen some flooding, but I doubt it was severe.

Don't get me wrong, there will be a lot of damage from this event - insured losses in the $15 to $20 Billion range, storm total impacts in excess of $60 Billion (if you include evacuation costs, etc.). But with what I see right now, my guess would be that the petrochemical industry recovers fairly quickly, with refinery down times in the days to 2 week time frame, not months. I think the biggest problem is going to be staffing and debris cleanup. The infrastructure was probably OK, but power and crews with damaged homes and cleanup issues will be a big problem.

Harder numbers later today, but my estimates from yesterday are probably pretty close on outage probabilities.

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