Shining Through The Rubble
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posted on
Oct 19, 2008 10:45AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
With financial markets around the world collapsing, about the only thing that still glitters is gold.
Unlike just about every other asset, gold has risen in the past year. Though it fell markedly last week, to $785.10, it's still up 3% from a year ago.
Gold has "shown its stripes as something investors will turn to," says Leanne Baker, founder of Investor Resources, a metals and mining advisory based in Mill Valley, Calif.
Now, the market may start to shine. The yellow metal, which breached $1,000 an ounce in March during the Bear Stearns debacle, could well return to that level and head toward $2,500 as investors scramble for safety, according to many fans.
"It is premature to declare an end to the bull market in gold and the bear market in paper," John Hathaway, portfolio manager of Tocqueville Asset Management, wrote recently. "It is more likely that this massive shakeout has set the stage for a dynamic advance." Barron's Roundtable member Mark Faber puts it more succinctly: "Gold will go up because everything else is in deep s--t."
Investors can participate in the gold market in a variety of ways, such as purchasing mining stocks or mutual funds that hold them. But right now, those shares are vulnerable to heavy selling by hedge funds and others trying to raise cash. That's why many pros recommend that investors acquire the metal itself.
You can amass physical gold by purchasing coins from various governments; buying shares in the StreetTracks Gold Trust exchange-traded fund (ticker: GLD), which is backed by the metal; or buying gold on the Website goldmoney.com. Gold purchased there is stored in insured vaults, and the holdings are audited annually. James Turk, founder of Goldmoney.com, sees gold at $1,100 or $1,200 an ounce by year-end. "...With markets melting down, uncertainty about the safety of assets and growing concern about counterparty risk, people look to assets with safe-haven status," Turk says. A longtime gold bug, Turk sees gold eventually hitting a dizzying $7,000 an ounce.
Charles Oliver, manager of the Sprott Gold and Precious Minerals Fund in Toronto, has a more restrained target of $2,000 within four years. But even that is nearly triple the current price.
When it comes to gold, such movements aren't so unusual. Since Barron's penned a bullish piece on the yellow metal nearly three years ago ("Golden Opportunity?" Dec. 26, 2005), it's up nearly 60%.
The technical signals, too, favor a rise. One key measure -- the Dow Jones Industrial Average divided by the price of an ounce of gold -- has lately been flashing bullish at about 11, down from more than 40 around the turn of the millennium. In the past two cycles, "gold did not peak, and the DJIA did not bottom, until this ratio was in the low single digits," writes John Roque, managing director and market technician for Natixis Bleichroeder.
Gold's outperformance against the blue-chip index tends to last at least 14 years.
Mining shares can't be ruled out entirely. In fact, mining companies should soon benefit not only from high gold prices but declining energy tabs, which lower the companies' costs.
"Even if the price of gold fell in half, gold stocks would still be fairly valued," says Steve Lehman, senior portfolio manager of the $1.8 billion Federated Market Opportunity Fund, which counts names like Yamana (AUY), Barrick (ABX) and Newmont Mining (NEM) among its largest holdings.
Oliver, of Sprott Precious Minerals Fund, is partial to companies like Goldcorp (GG), which has some of the lowest-cost mines, and Iamgold (IAG), which, in his view, at $3.07 a share is trading at a discount to the sum of its parts. For those with a bit more of an appetite for risk, Oliver suggests Kinross (KGC), a $7 billion market-value company that he says is trading at a discount to its net asset value.
Another option: Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX), an exchange-traded fund of gold mining and exploration companies.
As always, gold investing isn't without risks. Paul van Eeden, president of Cranberry Capital, a private holding company in Toronto, maintains that gold is "already slightly overvalued." Though the Federal Reserve has flooded the economic system with dollars, which normally would stoke inflation, van Eeden believes that the central bank "has mitigated a lot of the intervention by withdrawing funds out of the market." Based on a money-supply benchmark he has devised, gold should be trading at about $750 an ounce.
Faber, too, thinks gold is "not particularly inexpensive," but because you "can't trust the banks anymore, I'm quite happy to buy gold." He recommends purchasing physical gold and storing it in a safe-deposit box in a country like his native Switzerland. Sounds like a plan.