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Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.

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Message: todays trades

Re: ECU rocks vs SSO & creeping Arbitrage influence

in response to by
posted on Oct 28, 2008 07:20PM

Hi Hobbers. Regardless of today's price action - or lack thereof - compared to the herd, take some small consolation in the fact ECU has outperformed a weatherbell the likes of SSO, which is down 82% this year compared to ECU down "only" 65%. I will not be fooled by the temporary CRIMEX paper influence as long as the retail market remains tight and investor demand gradually nibbles into Industrial Silver supplies while retailers have superior and lasting pricing power.

My only regret is the slow pace this Arbitrage works it's way into the physical market, but these powers are now squarely on our side nevertheless, as they rapidly neutralize artificial paper supplies and take the POS back up a $1 as quickly as it manipulated back down (key here: this is a symptom that suggests physical markets are beginning to drive paper prices, as described by Uncle Jimmy last week, except he gave an example of how this arbitrage mechanism will eventually make Gold bullion drive the paper POG.)

At any rate all this Arbitrage (which increases real physical demand for limited bullion supplies that back futures contracts) is a real pain in the neck for the CRIMEX gang who rely on primary cash settlement and historic low physical delivery demand, to keep their paper charade going. More specifically I agree with one of Eric King's guests this weekend in that CRIMEX probably doesn't have as much deliverable Silver as it claims, so every ounce the Arbitragers take out of supply backing the paper-controlled system pushes it that much closer to the threshold of outright default. As evidence of this tightness, the lack of available Silver is obvious when NYMEX says Scotia supposedly holds 31MMoz Ag, 26 MM Registered ("ready for delivery") yet their vaults are empty in Toronto? Hmmmm. If they had so much free Silver available then it would be a simple matter to restock their Torone vaults, yet they can't even free up several 1,000 oz bars despite 26MMoz supposedly readily available for delivery. And then there's an equally large position of non-deliverable, allocated Silver & Gold to US retirement accounts supposedly largely held in allocated HSBC vaults. Etc etc. Have you hugged an Arbitrager today?

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