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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Ed Steer this morning

posted on Nov 04, 2008 06:02AM

From Ed Steer:

Both gold and silver did what you would expect when trading opening early Monday morning in the Far East. But, as per usual lately, someone showed up just after the Sydney close and put an end to the party. Gold's attempt to rise over $740 came to an end at noon in London (7:00 a.m. Eastern time) which, oddly enough, is the precise time of the silver fix. From that point, both metals were escorted lower...and every attempt at a rally during regular Comex hours in New York met with fresh selling...and the usual sellers showed up again in after-hours trading on the Globex. The silver price mirrored the gold price...and their respective graphs could have been interchanged with each other yesterday without noticing much of a difference. Everyone likes to denigrate silver as an 'industrial metal'. If that's the case, why (for the most part) do the prices of silver and gold rise and fall together? Just asking.

Having said all that, volume yesterday in gold was pitiful...mostly vapour...so moving the price around in either direction didn't require a lot of buying or selling. Several hundred contracts (or less) in Far East trading will generally do the trick.

Open interest last Friday showed a decline of 1,344 contracts in gold...down to 305,451. In silver, the o.i. got shaved by another 630 contracts to 92,779. Both the SLV and GLD showed no change yesterday. The HUI, although not closing at its highs, did manage another day in the plus column.

In gold news, I see that Barrick's Peter Munk has an "exceptionally positive view on gold." Here's what he had to say to Dorothy Kosich over at mineweb.com..."I think the outlook for gold is a hell of a lot more positive than anything else you can think of," Barrick Chairman and interim CEO Peter Munk told analysts Thursday during a conference call Thursday to discuss financial results. "We have never seen such volatility. We have never seen such dislocations. And in fact we have never seen such turmoil," Munk said. "If ever there was an expectation for gold to shine, we could not have imagined a more suitable, global macro economic climate than what we have seen over the last 90 to 120 days," he noted. Nevertheless, Munk admitted, "You have to be disappointed...just like we are...that, despite the external factors falling in line with all the guys who predicted Doomsday and gold going to $10,000 an ounce, Doomsday has almost arrived. Certainly we are on the precipice a number of times. And gold grows slowly."

Well, Peter...let me help you out a little here. First of all, look at yourself in the nearest mirror and you'll see a large part of the reason. Then, when you get to the office tomorrow, kindly review Barrick's hedging activities over the last fifteen years or so...although I'm sure you don't really have to check, do you? Then take the short walk over to your bullion bank, JPMorgan....Suite #1800 South Tower, Royal Bank Plaza, 200 Bay Street, Toronto...I'm sure you know where it is. Have a chat with them. Then, on your way out of the building, take an elevator ride up to Sprott Asset Management in Suite #2700, and tell Eric Sprott and John Embry what you've discovered. They'll get back to me, and I'll report on it here. Thanks a bunch! :-))

The news was so bad yesterday, it just doesn't fizz on me anymore....US Auto Sales Tumble: "If you adjust for population growth, it's the worst sales month in the post World War II era'' for the industry, said Mike DiGiovanni, GM's chief sales analyst, on a conference call. "Clearly we're in a dire situation." (Note to Mike: It's going to get worse...much worse. - Ed). Bloomberg...US manufacturing contracts at fastest pace since 1982. AP...Banks, which are losing billions because many card holders aren't paying anything, seek OK to forgive up to 40% of strapped consumer' debt." FT (London)..."British and EU monetary policy makers are facing mounting pressure to slash interest rates to historic lows." Dailymail.co.uk..."Goldman Sachs ready to hand out $7 billion salary and bonus package...after its $6 billion bail-out." You couldn't make this stuff up!!!



Today's first story directly relates to the previous paragraph and the cartoon above. It's from Bloomberg...and you have to ask yourself this question...."Will the World swallow another half-trillion in U.S. Treasuries this quarter?" The headline reads "U.S. to Borrow Record to Finance Deficit" and the link is here.

The next story is from thenation.com and is entitled "Paulson's Swindle Revealed". Contained in it, is a "stinging" letter from Leo W. Gerard, president of the United Steelworkers...sent to U.S. Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson. Gerard puts it to Paulson in no uncertain terms. The story isn't very long, but is worth the read, and the link is here.

Today's last offering is from Mr. Turk over at goldmoney.com. In his latest commentary entitled "Gold Is Still in an Uptrend" James updates a dozen charts to show that gold, silver, and commodities remain in a bull market despite the damage done to them in recent months. He predicts that the bear market rally in the U.S. dollar will end soon and that the increase in the price of the precious metals and commodities will resume. I couldn't agree more...and the link is here.

In stark fact, the importance of Gold is that its circulation as MONEY makes "The Manipulation of Money and (therefore) Credit" impossible. The fundamental concern of those who do understand the current financial crisis is not how high or low the Gold "price" expressed in US Dollar or any other fiat currency may go. It is how long it will take for Gold to be re-established as money, and where that will take place first. Because SOUND money is necessary for savings, investment, credit and markets to function properly, the re-establishment of Gold as MONEY is crucial. - Bill Buckler, the-privateer.com

Today is "Election Day - USA!"...not that it matters. It's irrelevant who wins. As a matter of fact, the loser should be grateful that they will not be holding onto the wheel when the late, great USA finally crashes and burns. As a Canadian born in 1948...it's been sad to watch over all those years. When the end does finally arrive, most Americans will never know what hit 'em.

God Bless America!

See you tomorrow.

Casey Research correspondent-at-large Ed Steer is a keen observer of the financial scene and a board member of GATA.org.





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