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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Ed Steer this morning

posted on Nov 26, 2008 05:52AM

From Ed Steer:

Tuesday was the third day in a row that gold and silver got sold off as soon as trading began in the Far East...and as I write this, Wednesday morning in Asia is shaping up the same way. Gold was down about $15 when the Comex opened in New York on Tuesday...and a ferocious $25 rally (tech funds?) got stopped dead in its tracks at precisely 9:00 a.m. Eastern time...the second day in a row it didn't get past $830 the ounce. Silver's fate was similar. Both sold off from there and both finished basically unchanged from Monday. The HUI traded as low as 218...but managed to tack a 5% gain onto that number to close in slightly positive territory for the day.

Monday's open interest numbers were interesting. Gold open interest fell 5,533 contracts to 282,978...another new low. One would think that it should have gone up with the gold price, but the large players are still switching their gold and silver contracts into future months in 2009; so, in this process, there could be a lot of spread trades being lifted as well...which would contribute to a drop in open interest. All this frantic activity will cease at the end of Comex trading today. First day notice is on Friday. Then we'll really find out who is standing for delivery...and then we'll also find out if there's anything to all this short squeeze talk that we've all heard so much about in the last couple of months. And not to forget silver, its o.i. on Monday was down as well...a smallish 204 contracts to 90,418.

So...were the "2 or less" U.S. bullion banks lurking about yesterday? It sure looked like it to me if I just had the gold chart to go on; because like I've said ad nauseum...NO profit maximizing seller sells like that...EVER! However...because of all the switches and other gaming going on as we approach the biggest delivery month of the year in both gold and silver...I think I'll begrudgingly reserve judgement and wait for further developments today, Friday...and Monday.

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There was no earthshaking news in the gold or silver world of note today. However I see that the US Mint has stamped out 1,999,500 silver eagles so far for November. The total for 2008 to date is a magnificent 17,374,500...which is light years ahead of the previous record high...and we've still got one month to go. Gold eagle production for November currently sits at 116,500.

In the 'bad news' department...and there won't be any other kind for years to come...I see in a Reuters story that home prices plummeted a record 17.4% in September from a year earlier...and the US government was providing more free money to more banks. So, what else is new? More money out of thin air. Late in 2007 it was tens of billions per week. By the end of the first quarter of 2008, it was hundreds of billions per week...and starting about a month ago, it's been a trillion dollars or more per week. Is hyperinflation heading our way? John Williams over at shadowstats.com sure thinks so...and within the the next 18 months. The photo below shows what hyperinflation in extremis does to paper currencies’ purchasing power.

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As usual, there's always an embarrassment of riches to choose from when it comes to stories to highlight, and today is no different. I have three...all of which are worth the read. Here they are...and in the order they arrived in my in-box yesterday.

The first was filed from Reykjavik, Iceland and was an article in yesterday's paper at news.scotsman.com. The headline reads "A near-riot and parliament besieged: Iceland boiling mad at credit crunch". It sounds suspiciously like the UBS story I ran yesterday...except on a national scale. In the years to come, the citizens of other countries will be just as irate...especially in the USA. That's what Homeland Security was put in place for. Homeland Security vs. the Second Amendment? It could get ugly. The link is here.

The second story is also from the U.K....thefirstpost.co.uk to be exact. The headline reads "Cash was king -- now gold is God". The link is here
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Last...but certainly not least...is the latest commentary from silver analyst Ted Butler. Butler speculates that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest investigation of the silver (and gold) market was concocted to buy time for the market manipulators to engineer one final selloff in which they might cover their short positions. We'll find out soon enough if that's true. This week's essay has the thought provoking title of "Beyond Taxation Without Representation" and the link is here.

Were it not for the chance of a government bailout, in lieu of an imminent Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, (General Motors) bonds would trade for much less. And there lies the truth about what America's capital markets have become: a rigged game. - Jonathan Weil, Bloomberg, 20 November 2008

As you already know, what Jonathan Weil said in the quote above is absolutely true. Everything is rigged. And as GATA's secretary treasurer, Chris Powell, puts it..."there are no markets anymore, only interventions." So that leaves us with only one truth left, and that's the precious metals...physical gold and silver in particular. Buy them with both hands while they're still on sale, as I doubt they'll be that way for much longer.

Tomorrow is Thanksgiving in the late, great USA. I wish all of my American readers...wherever in the world they are...a wonderful holiday weekend with family and friends.

I'll see you on Saturday with today's market comments.

Casey Research correspondent-at-large Ed Steer is a keen observer of the financial scene and a board member of GATA.org.
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