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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Ed Steer this morning

posted on Dec 27, 2008 08:29AM

And then there's this...

In extremely light trading on the day before Christmas, gold looked like it found a bottom at the $835 mark...and without the 'benefit' of either London or New York being open on the 25th...it's no surprise that neither gold or silver did a thing. It looked like the 26th was going to be another yawner, but a funny thing happened shortly before 1:00 p.m. in New York yesterday...a surprise buyer (or buyers) showed up. Whether it was a new buyer or short covering is not know, but someone wanted gold pretty badly. The runaway rally was stopped dead in its tracks the moment that the Comex closed and after-hours trading began. From there, gold flat-lined.

Silver had similar rally, but in this case, the rally extended into after-hours trading on the Globex...before its upward momentum got stopped cold as well.

The gold and silver shares did very well, too...so we'll take the Christmas present, even though it's a day late. And if you've been watching carefully, you will note that the HUI has just about doubled from its low of 150 back in October.

I said in my report on Wednesday morning that I didn't expect much activity for the rest of the year. I'm quite happy to be proven wrong in cases like this. I'm sure there wasn't a lot of volume yesterday, but with this kind of day-after-Christmas surprise, I'd say that anything's possible in the three days of trading that's left between now and the new year.

Gold open interest on December 24th rose a surprisingly robust 3,054 contracts to 290,765. Silver also managed to tack on 324 contracts...which isn't a lot. These numbers won't show up until the first COT of 2009...likely on January 5th.

In gold news, I noted that the Russian Central Bank added another 100,000 ounces to their official gold reserves in November. That brings their total gold bullion stash up to 16.4 million troy ounces...a hair over 500 tonnes. The usual N.Y. gold commentator had the following to say about European Central Bank gold activity last week..."Tuesday's condition statement indicated a fall in "gold and gold receivables" of E125Mm...attributed to sales by one captive central bank. This represents 6.12 tonnes at the present book value. Last week's total was 1.04 tonnes. A larger sale that usual, but still well below the notional weekly average implied by the "Washington Agreement on Gold II."

The last gold item of possible interest is this story that popped up about Barrick Gold's recent 'problem' in Tanzania. The mainstream media did a story on it...but here's another more disquieting report on the same incident. If you're familiar with GATA's work, there are far too many 'disquieting' stories about this company to suit us. This one is from dominionpaper.ca and is entitled "Civilian Uprising Against Barrick Gold in Tanzania: Mine security shoots young man, villagers respond by destroying $7 million in equipment" and the link is here.

Lots of 'other news' to run through today...and in no particular order the headlines are as follows: nasdaq.com..."Palestinian militants attacked southern Israel with rockets...and tensions flared between Pakistan and India, as Pakistani troops are reported to be moving to their border with India." Bloomberg (Moscow)..."OAO Gazprom, Russia’s gas-export monopoly, said “extremely unconstructive” talks with Ukraine over a debt dispute may trigger the second cutoff of fuel shipments to the former Soviet state in three years." (It appears that the Ukraine owes the company at cool US$2.1 billion in past due natural gas bills. - Ed) Foxbusiness.com (New York)...Fox News Pulls a Bloomberg: "FOX Business Network has filed a lawsuit against the United States Treasury Department over failure to provide information on the bailout funds or respond to FBN’s expedited requests filed under the Freedom of Information Act [FOIA]." ("We, the people..." wish them good luck! - Ed) Federalreserve.gov (24 Dec.)..."The Federal Reserve Board announced its approval of the application...by GMAC LLC and IB Finance Holding Company, LLC, both of Detroit, Michigan, to become bank holding companies..." (That's the lot...first the car companies...now their associated financial entities. - Ed) And lastly, from the Financial Times (Madrid): "Santander, Spain’s biggest bank, has blocked public access to the website of its Optimal hedge fund management arm after telling investors in a US equities subfund they face potential losses of €2.33bn ($3.29bn) in the allegedly fraudulent securities operation run by Bernard Madoff in New York." The complete story is well worth the read and is linked here.

click to enlarge


Today's first story is filed from the Bloomberg's Tokyo bureau. The headline reads "Japan Should Scrap U.S. Debt; Dollar May Plummet, Mikuni Says" Basically what is being suggested here is a Japanese-style WWII "Marshall Plan" for an up-and-coming Third World country...the U.S.A. I could hardly believe what I was reading. It's a 'must read' and the link is here.

The second story is from Jonathan Freedland from The Guardian in London. It's sort of a "Nightmare Before Christmas" for certain highly placed members of the Bush administration. One would think that international travel plans in 2009 (and beyond) would become a dicey issue for those with real blood on their hands. The article is entitled "Seasonal forgiveness has a limit. Bush and his cronies must face a reckoning." I thank Dwight Owen for sending me the story...and the link is here.

The last story today is GATA's Christmas greeting to all believers in the "ancient metal of Kings" as written by our illustrious secretary treasurer, Chris Powell. When he isn't working on GATA concerns, he moonlights as Senior Editor at the Journal Enquirer in Manchester, Connecticut. As he begins "The First Gift"...Powell quotes Matthews 2:11. I can only fantasize about ever being able to write like that. The link is here.

Picking off Spain’s wealthiest was like clubbing seals...said one business consultant regarding the Spanish bank's information sheet for Santander’s Madoff-invested Optimal Strategic US Equity Fund, Financial Times (Madrid), 16 December 2008

Since it's Christmas, my 'blast from the past' takes that into consideration. George Frideric Handel wrote his famed Messiah between the 22nd of August and the 14th of September in 1741. That's 24 days. If you've ever seen the score...words and music...it's a book. It was first presented to the public in Dublin, Ireland on April 13, 1742. I bought my CD version of this piece about 25 years ago. It was considered the best recording available back then...and it's still considered that today.

Two days ago I was amazed to discover that this 25 year old audio recording had a video counterpart...and the only piece available on youtube.com was my favourite...so here it is. This is the incomparable soprano Emma Kirkby with the Choir of Christ Church Cathedral, Oxford (directed by Simon Preston)...with the Academy of Ancient Music under the baton of Christopher Hogwood. The selection is entitled "But who may abide the day of his coming." This is an audio/visual treat of the first order, so turn up your speakers and then click here.

Season's greetings to you once again...enjoy the rest of your weekend...and I'll see you on Tuesday morning.

Casey Research correspondent-at-large Ed Steer is a keen observer of the financial scene and a board member of GATA.org
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