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Message: Pivotal Week Ahead

Pivotal Week Ahead

posted on Jan 18, 2009 12:55PM

The upcoming week should be exciting to say the least. We get Obama moving in with high expectations due to the fact that he is probably the last hope to improve economic conditions for the next 4 years. If we do get a market rally, it will be difficult to determine if the cause results from Obama's arrival or Bush's departure.

Also tomorrow, the U.K. is suppose to announce their new bank bailout plan. Since their banks are similarly insolvent like those across the Atlantic, it will just buy some time. What will be interesting is to see how gold reacts to yet another major bank bailout. As this is a sign of panic, gold should rise but we all know signs of panic must be suppressed. With U.S. markets closed on Monday, we will see if London has the ability to suppess PM's on their own. Although it is most likely that the gold cartel will be in full force globally during the inaugural week to paint perception.

Lastly, some 180 companies are slated to report results this week. Currently, 55 S&P 500 firms, including five Dow components are on tap. Standouts include Johnson & Johnson, IBM, United Technologies, Apple, eBay, Google, Microsoft, and General Electric. Thus far from TSG..."In the second week of Q4-08 reporting season with a total of 435 companies having reported (up from 378 last week), average earnings are now down 60% versus Q4-07, versus off 48% last week. This compares to a drop of 62% for Q3-08 versus Q3-07. Given that earnings have so far experienced their biggest drops since first turning negative in Q3-07 and that results have deteriorated as reporting seasons have progressed, we expect results to continue to deteriorate as more companies report."

If the hyped and PPT supported Obama rally fails to materialize within a few days, a very major leg down will occur due to the combined effects of the following: worsening corporate earnings, deteriorating bank fundamentals, and almost every other piece of economic data including escalating job losses.

Cheers - VHF


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