Observations on retail bullion

I'm starting to see spreads from big coin dealers (Tulving, APMEX, etc) widen out again and it appears that inventory is declining. We had an influx of supply when the 2009 mint coins were released. Now Tulving is taking orders for delivery next week for silver eagles and is out of most other standard silver bullion. His spreads over spot for 1 oz. gold coins is getting wider again. I said in December that my best guess is that when the 2009 release clears the market, we will have another coin shortage like the one last spring, only it will occur earlier. Looks like that may be indeed the case. My best test for retail sales is Ebay. Since early January, the offerings in mint rolls of 1 oz. silver eagles have been substantially declining. Rolls are now being firmly bid at $380/roll, $19/coin and the listings, except for one obvious dealer, are rapidly declining. Monday rolls were transacting anywhere from $345 to $360.

A few things are very clear to me. The Government is doing what it can to keep bullion out of the "system." The only reason the mint is releasing coins is because it's the law. I am also convinced beyond any reason of doubt that GLD and IAU are leasing, or using subcustodians to outright sell, their bullion. I am now publicly asking the Trustees and Custodians of these ETFs to provide 3rd party audited and visual PROOF that the gold they are reporting to be holding is actually being held physically at their vaults. If they will not do this, then anyone investing their hard-earned money in these ETFs should sell them immediately and buy the real thing. Anyone who has money with a mutual fund or other institution which owns GLD should write the institution and attach a copy of my GLD piece from the Little Bear Table and ask the fund manager to get out of GLD before it too suffers the fate of Enron, Bear, Lehman, etc.