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Message: Speculation on short term POG & POS

Speculation on short term POG & POS

posted on Feb 14, 2009 07:24PM

I have an uneasy feeling about POG & POS. For what it's worth, a number of things are making me suspicious of a takedown coming up, probably (IMO) just prior to options expiries which occur beginning Feb 24, as follows, from:

1) http://www.individual.com/story.php?...

Feb. 24 Comex March gold options expiry
Feb. 24 Comex March silver options expiry
Feb. 24 Comex March copper options expiry
Feb. 24 Comex March aluminum options expiry
Feb. 25 Nymex March Asian palladium futures last trading day
Feb. 25 Nymex March Asian platinum futures last trading day
Feb. 25 Nymex March Asian gold futures last trading day
Feb. 25 Comex February gold futures last trading day
Feb. 25 Comex February silver futures last trading day
By the way, there is significant NYMEX open interest on Gold calls at $1,000 - 8,054 contracts, and $950 - 5,425 contracts. Below that (down to $500-the lowest price) the only position of any significance is 3,895 contracts at $800. (from Feb 13 AM) Here is a link:

http://quotes.ino.com/options/?s=NYM...

2) Huge alleged inputs to GLD & SLV, which I suspect are the traps for confiscation of wealth from the unsophisticated PM investor, too lazy and unaware of reality to do due diligence and invest in "THE REAL THING". The paper in these ETFs will likely be "dumped" into the market to effect the plunge in metals prices.

3) Very large increases in commercial short positions is REALLY ominous.

4) A la Hulbert report, too many people are just to bullish on Gold & Silver right now, and they have just had some nice runs.

5) I see the HUI and XAU have also had good runs, but many of the large and mid-tier stocks (except for a few) have not moved that well, and not with high volume. The juniors seem to be awakining from their comas, but not many.

I believe we will see POG stomped down to approx $860, where there is strong support - but intraday, watch out for $845-$855. Massive short covering by our dear friends at JP Morgan will set the stage for the ensuing humonguous rise in prices beginning very early in March. Now that the Canadian brokers have loaded up on the promising juniors and mid-tiers, they should also participate in the rally, with much more vigour than the large (Tier 1) and Tier 2 companies exhibited since November last.

On the other hand, I read this article 4 times, and I still can't figure what it says.

- I think it's bullish?!!?

"China bank regulator clarifies, says U.S. bonds are not only option

Submitted by cpowell on 11:33AM ET Saturday, February 14, 2009

CBRC Official Says U.S. Bonds Not Only Option, China News Says

By Judy Chen
Bloomberg News
Friday, February 13, 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...

Looking forward to any comments y'all might want to post.

Now, back to listening to coast to coast. If the POS gets whacked enough, and the premiums on physical also go down, I'm gonna get me some more, and make a silver hat, which has got to be more effective than my old tin foil hat.

Have a great weekend!

N

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