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Message: Here's a douzy found on CNBC, bad job numbers will good for the DOW

Here's a douzy found on CNBC, bad job numbers will good for the DOW

posted on Mar 05, 2009 03:25PM

Nothing like a whole new bunch of people not paying tax and collecting U.I.c. benefits to stimulate the economy:

Later

Why a Lousy Jobs Report Could Actually Help Stocks

In a market more preoccupied with government policy than traditional indicators, employment is the one metric that still draws investor attention.

CNBC.com

That's why Friday's jobs number, whether it surprises to the upside or downside, could either intensify the current market slump or perhaps indicate better things to come.

"That number's been one the market has been focusing on each time," says Richard Sparks, senior analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati. "The worries over the economy and how bad it's going to get are a real big concern. The jobs number is one that people are going to be looking at to see if things are as bad as we think they are."

In the best-case scenario, a surprise to the downside could still work out well for the market.

Investors have been searching for that vital capitulation point where complete despair sets in and stocks form a true bottom. A higher-than-expected jobless rate could set the stage for that and spark a long-overdue rally in what most agree is a highly oversold market.

"Maybe that could finally raise some alarm bells and we get a big down, 300 to 400 points at the open," says Chip Hanlon, president of Delta Global Advisors in Huntington Beach, Calif. "It sounds gruesome, but I think that might finally be the type of capitulation that they've overreacted to bad news. That might finally wash out the last few sellers and signal that at least investors are paying attention."

Many analysts, indeed, cite investor apathy as a major problem for the market.

Stocks once again slumped Thursday, but on low volume typical of many of the recent selloffs. The CBOE Volatility Index [VIX 50.17 2.61 (+5.49%) ] remains mired in a tight range, causing investors looking for a capitulation point to worry that there's not enough panic in the markets yet.

"If people panic and throw the baby out with the bath water in a big 300- to 500-point whoosh to the downside, at least they're engaged," Hanlon says. "Right now I'm not even sensing that. I'm getting the sense that people are just quitting on the market."

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