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Message: Re: Stiglitz on Geithner's plans - perverse incentives

Mornin Don't

"The U.S. government is basically using the taxpayer to guarantee against downside risk on the value of these assets, while giving the upside, or potential profits, to private investors, he said.

"Quite frankly, this amounts to robbery of the American people. I don't think it's going to work because I think there'll be a lot of anger about putting the losses so much on the shoulder of the American taxpayer." Even if the plan clears banks of massive toxic debt, worries about the economic outlook mean banks could still be unwilling to make fresh loans, while the prospect of a higher tax burden to pay for various government stimulus plans could further undermine U.S. consumers, he said."

Here is what I see that none of the "experts" will acknowledge.

WE are told that there is rampant counter-party (AIG) default risk on derivatives (Credit Default Swaps written against MBSs). They also claim that all trading has stopped in the MBS bonds removing the pricing mechanism. The national mortgage rate default is reported at around 4%. If this suddenly doubled that would still imply a roughly 8% risk to the MBS value.

So the risk is contained to less than 10%, but the ranting and raving accompanying the canine equestrian show would have us believe that the risk is that they lose 90% of value.

It seems that without trading the pricing can't be done and no one is willing to make a real analysis of MBS value. BUT they are now paying off the counter-parties (goldscum sucks, JP Moron, and foreign banks) as if the value is 0. And they are paying them off quietly trying to keep it under the radar.

It won't surprise me if in 6 months or a year, it turns out that these MBS's turn out to be well valued and the holders who get paid off by taxpayer money via AIG bailout get paid twice! It just looks as if the elitist bankers are orchestrating DC as if the clown are really just puppets.

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