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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Ed Steer this morning

posted on May 15, 2009 07:02AM

From Ed Steer:

Despite things looking decidedly negative in Far East and London trading yesterday, the bottom in the gold price [such as it was] came at the beginning of Comex trading at 8:30 a.m. New York time yesterday morning. So the sell-off I was so concerned about in yesterday's rant didn't amount to a hill of beans, because by the time the smoke had cleared, the gold price was virtually unchanged from Tuesday. Let's see what happens today.

However, if one looks at the silver chart, it looks like someone found a cliff to shove the price off of shortly before 4:00 p.m. during Hong Kong trading. The silver price dropped about two percent in half an hour or so...as some not-for-profit seller was about. That turned out to be the low of the day...despite the usual shenanigans at the Comex open. The 3-day silver graph doesn't look like normal supply and demand buying or selling to me.

click to enlarge


Yesterday's roller coaster ride in gold produced an increase in open interest of 1,901 contracts to 359,517 on big volume...151,219 contracts...including switches. It should be no surprise that silver o.i. fell...1,107 contracts to 95,439 contracts. Volume was average...18,562 contracts, including switches.

Very little to report in "other" gold news. Nothing from the U.S. Mint. There were no changes in either the GLD or SLV. The Comex Delivery Report showed only seven gold contracts were delivered...and 94 in silver. There are still about 1,050 silver contracts yet to be delivered for May. Silver stocks at the Comex-approved warehouses rose another 624,219 ounces...that's about one 18-wheeler full of silver. I see that the strike at PeƱoles precious metals refinery in Mexico was over on April 25th...and they're now accepting precious metals concentrate again. I wonder if they've lifted their force majeure that they declared back then, as I haven't seen anything written about this news item anywhere else. It's my bet that it will take them at least a year to get their lost business back...if then.

I'm still trying to catch up the raft of excellent stories that I received while I was on vacation. The first story is from Oklahoma, of all places. It appears that a serious attempt is being made by the state legislature to restore Oklahoma's sovereignty. A resolution to reclaim Oklahoma's sovereignty has already passed the House and is now in front of the Senate. It seems that many federal laws violate the 10th Amendment, which says powers not delegated to the U.S. government "are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people." I thank P.S. for the story entitled "House bypasses governor's veto to claim Oklahoma's sovereignty" and the link is here.

The next story is from the Financial Times in London. Someone has taken notice of just how much money that European central banks have lost by selling off chunks of their gold reserves over the last ten years. It adds up to around US$40 billion. The link is here.

Here's a story from the Germany that's posted at spiegel.de. It shows the physical manifestation of the effects of the breakdown of the Baltic Dry Index...both in words and pictures. Business is booming in the ship scrapping business in both Bangladesh and Pakistan. The photo gallery is great...and the article is first rate as well. The story is entitled "Shipbreaking Boom: The Freighter Graveyards of South Asia". I thank Craig McCarty for sending it along...and the link is here.

It's hard to write my daily rant without a piece by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard showing up in it at least a couple of times a week. Here's commentary that he had this past weekend. This story was something he posted on Sunday...but which is still very much worth taking note of today. The title says it all..."Enjoy the rally while it lasts - but expect to take a sucker punch". I couldn't agree more...and the link is here.

Here's a piece from the Asia Times. It was written by John Browne of Euro Pacific Capital. I'm not as enraptured as he is with all this improved Chinese manufacturing activity, but the rest of his commentary about China and gold is worth your while. The article is entitled "China stirs a pot of gold"...and once again I thank Craig McCarty for sending it along. The link is here.

As we all know, one of the next shoes to drop is the commercial real estate market in the United States. Much has already been written about that, but here's a Bloomberg piece [courtesy of Craig McCarty once again] that shows what's happening over in London's business district. It's a bit of a read, but definitely worth it. The article is headlined "Rents Crashing in London to 1991 Prices: Le Garoche Shows Gone" and the link is here.

And lastly is this illustration posted over at zerohedge.blogspot.com [with thanks again to Craig McCarty]. The map below demonstrates the massive impact that just the initial round of Chrysler dealer shutdowns will have on the US economy. As is evident, the pain will be focused east of the Rockies, although major West Coast cities will not be spared either. Every dot represents an automotive dealer that Chrysler will make redundant.

click to enlarge


As far as the Fed and the Treasury are concerned, this is an all-out WAR. They've put the viability of the United States at risk through creating trillions of dollars of debt. I believe this government will stop at nothing in their furious battle against the bear market and deflation. And if manipulation helps, they'll do it.

For decades I've heard stories and rumors about manipulation. I've always brushed those rumors aside. But this is a different world, and the nation is literally fighting for its life. People ask me, "Do you really believe the government would manipulate the markets?" My answer, "You bet I do, they're willing to do absolutely anything in their struggle to get the US economy back to 'normal' again.
- Richard Russell, 14 May 2009

I note in a Reuters story that Standard & Poor's said that "the nation's banking crisis has 'merely entered a new phase' and might not end before 2013." We'll all be lucky if that's the case. I've commented before that we won't see a bottom in the U.S. real estate market until 2013...and that I'd be a very old man before this "greater depression" has breathed its last. I still stand by that statement.

See you on Saturday.

Casey Research correspondent-at-large Ed Steer is a keen observer of the financial scene and a board member of GATA.org.

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