There are more and more people becoming convinced that the bear market is over, that the lows were made on March 9, and happy times, at least stock market-wise, are here again. The Asian markets are certainly marching to that drummer again this evening.

I think there is a lot of trouble ahead in the US, and though many of you don't agree, I think our (US) trouble will be exported quite painfully to much of the world.

Oil and other commodities have really raced up lately. PM's have done great; perhaps the PM's can get through the downturn many see coming. When I hear the arguments that the worst is over, compared to the arguments that the worst is yet to come, the latter makes more sense to me, quite a bit more, actually. However, we all have biases, and mine would be to the pessimistic side, so my lack of objectivity is a concern in interpreting what I hear.

The Nasdaq, which had been leading the charge domestically, took a relative breather last week - bad portent? And the emerging markets, well they've run up out of sight since early March.

I suppose I can most readily see continued weakness of the dollar, and of the various US bonds and notes. Gold is at an awkward level. It seems poised to try to set some a high soon, certain to get over a thousand again, but will it last, or will it wilt quickly like it did on two previous four digit sorties, and then have to regroup for yet another run to firmly establish a $1,000+ base camp?