Re: ECU Silver -First Month of Dore Generation - Coach's Corner
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 12, 2009 09:32AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Hi Coach et al:
A few random thoughts. The comment I made about the revenue value per share was in response to a poster who was lamenting the fact that the share price was not responding upward to the dore news. Rightly or not I usually consider these company announcements in the context of the "market" when there is an expectation that news will affect a stock's price. We need buyers in the market who view ECU using the same long term logic you have propounded, with which I totally agree. But new buyers are probably not thinking your way about ECU relative to alternative places to put their limited investment funds and the dore news was not, in my opinion, dramatic enough to encourage them to do a lot of dd on ECU as a place to put their money.
Another thought that occurs to me is a graph that someone here posted many weeks ago that described the common trend for small mining stocks when the company passes through milestone events on its way to the big time. My recollection is that positive early exploration news results in a big share price jump followed by a slump when the market realizes that the big reserves will require a lot of time and money before cash flows to the bottom line. The early speculation dies and the price drops. Then the process towards revenue and profit takes place over time and the share price moves up accordingly but not quickly enough for the likes of me who didn't bail out at the top of the exploration euphoria with the plan to get back in when the money was going to start to flow into the treasury. If the graph is accurate we are at the bottom of the trough waiting for solid evidence that ECU will turn into a money generator with a strong long term future based on its huge proven resource. I believe that's what we are waiting for and that when that message reaches the market and is well recognized we will see the share price appreciation we have been hoping for.
I was reading today about the recent commodity price increases and how China is stockpiling like crazy. The speculation then goes two ways - they can't keep this up or maybe they can. One writer points to shipping charges as a key indicator and says that future shipping price quotes are far below today's values indicating that the ship owners feel volumes are expected to drop. The recent experience we have been through in the markets has diminished my already dim view of forecasters to the point that I seldom put much stock in any predictions of the future. Everything seems so unstable we just seem to have to "wait and see." I like Pic's expression - "It is what it is."
Always appreciate your insights Coach, and those of the many others who provide so much valuable information here. The "recommendations" attached to your posts here tell the story.
Cheers and I hope the Penguins win but that is not a forecast!