Good scenario.
My guess is that at least one trader is working that scam, which I might add is perfectly legal, and making tens of thousands of dollars on the trade. And its pretty much risk free since if the market runs away from his short, he can just exercise the wrts at a profit, and then deliver the shares to cover the short.
One thing, though - the warrants have never been "in the money", so our trader would lose money if he were to exercise the warrants to get shares to cover the short. So I don't think that this is an explanation for ECU's behaviour.
Cheers