Latest Schultz Shock: a 'bank holiday'
by Peter Brimelow

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The top-performing letter that predicted the Crash of 2008 now predicts a confiscatory Franklin D. Roosevelt-style "bank holiday." But it's surprisingly sanguine about stocks -- in the (very) short term...

In its current issue, HSL reports rumors that "Some U.S. embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of U.S. cash to purchase currencies from those governments, quietly. But not pound sterling. Inside the State Dept., there is a sense of sadness and foreboding that 'something' is about to happen ... within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days."

Yes, yes, it's paranoid. But paranoids have enemies -- and the Crash of 2008 really did happen.

HSL's suspicion: "Another FDR-style 'bank holiday' of indefinite length, perhaps soon, to let the insiders sort out the bank mess, which (despite their rosy propaganda campaign) is getting more out of their control every day. Insiders want to impose new bank rules. Widespread nationalization could result, already underway. It could also lead to a formal U.S. dollar devaluation, as FDR did by revaluing gold (and then confiscating it)."

HSL is still sticking with its 20-year "V" formation forecast, but emphasizes that within the current 10-year downtrend phase there will be rallies that will "last 1-2 years." It attributes its current success to "successfully trading almost daily, especially in commodity stocks (coal/potash/energy/ fertilizer/gold). Take profits constantly and rebuy on mini pullbacks. Prefer non-U.S. dollar companies; many such companies are listed in U.S. & Canada or Australia."

HSL says: "The world is staggering today between stagflation and net deflation right now; it varies widely around globe. Net deflation is a maybe 35% risk, due to toxics and/or deepening depression. Bit more likely, we'll slowly creep up to a dangerous 4.5% inflation on average, medium-term. But the wild card is the currency risk, which has a 50% (?) chance of boiling over and causing literally overnight (i.e. 24 hours) mega inflation in the asset markets."

Comment/questions: what happens to the entire US population and all retail business if there is a bank holiday? Who has even one week's worth of cash for food, gas, phone/energy/communication bills? If 10% of the population went out to acquire it, where would they get it? Would a no-cash period in the US suck the last precious metals from private hands?