hobbers,

It is days like today where you begin to question whether we are simply on the wrong side of the battle. Has the old saying "if you can't beat'em, join'em" ever been more relevant? If I were an economics graduate I would be demanding a refund on my education since very little seems to follow any economic principles lately.

How many times have we seen the commercial short position increase followed by a hopeful anticipation of a squeeze, only to see PMs get whacked lower. You are right, this is probably the best indicator on predicting the short term movement of PM prices. It's better than any guru prediction, chart or fundamental explanation in favour of the price of gold.

Maybe the cartel is too powerful to get caught on the wrong side of this trade? Maybe gold moves higher only when they have covered their short positions and satisfied the long positions? Whatever their plans are, it increasingly appears we are simply along for the ride.