The Geometric Devolution of the United States
posted on
Jul 09, 2009 01:52AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
I have been studying the progression of the U.S. Federal debt. The first increase in the debt of 1/2 trillion dollars took from 1791 thru 1975, a period of 184 years. The last 4 increases in the debt of 1/2 trillion each averaged 0.22 years each or less than 3 months each. I am trying to find some free software to plot an inverse exponetial curve thru the time period per 1/2 trillion increase to better predict the future rate and if I can I will get it posted on LeMet.
Looking at the data, it appears that the U.S. finances go thru stages and each stage lasts a little more than 1/4 of the length of the previous stage. The first stage was from the civil war thru Nixon closing the gold window (1864 thru 1971) which was 107 years. During this period the U.S. was a growing industrial power and finacially responsible due to the dollar gold backing. The 2nd stage was 1972 thru 2000 (29 years), a period of varing commodity and asset price increases and a period which on average the debt increased about 200 billion per year. Next was 2001 thru mid 2008 (7.5 years) where the government was focused on recovering from the tech crash and the housing bubble was created. During this phase the debt increased about 500 billion per year. Last is the phase we are in now, and if it lasts 1/4 of the last phase it will be 1.75 to 2 years. Based on the debt levels of 500 billion every 3 months for the last year, we are exactly one year into this phase with 9 to 12 months to go. After this phase, I do not think the government can pull off another phase other than hyperinflation and mayhem. If there is a 5th phase it will only last 5 to 6 months. Regardless, looking at the mathamatical progression, I think the United States only has 9 to 18 months left until total upheaval.
All this reminds me of a video game years back (Tetras I think) where different geometric shapes fall onto the screen and you have to reorient them as they fall so that they align in place. As the screen fills up it get harder and harder to align the shapes in the reduced time you have. This is what is happening to the government as shock after shock, and expenditure after expenditure hits them faster and faster. Pretty soon it will be game over.
I do not know if the government has planned this falling of the United States, but I do believe they see it coming. I hope this does not offend anyone, but I was in Detroit in 1968 during the riots when schools were closed for a year and buildings burned to the ground. I think the president we have now was picked so that the government can deal with possible riots better than someone like McCain could have. I hope I am wrong, but you reap what you sow, and the United States has sown corruption, arrogance, oppression, and more for years and we have it coming to us.