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Message: USD Index

USD Index

posted on Aug 18, 2009 04:58PM

As noted below, the USD is banging against a resistance line that has stopped every rally over the past 6 months. Although PPT intervention could produce a short-term miracle, odds are slim that gold will be weakening much further here due to any upcoming increase in USD strength. Furthermore, such a move would be most counterintuitive especially when one considers the record supply of U.S. treasury bonds issued over the past few weeks.

Regards - VHF

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US Dollar Index Testing 50-Day Average

B.I.G.

August 18, 2009

Calling it a rally would be an exaggeration, but the US dollar index has seen a modest gain over the last several days and is currently trying to break above its 50-day moving average (DMA). Over the last six months, the 50-DMA has been acting as a steamroller for the index, rolling it over with every attempt at a rally. Given the fact that the negative correlation between the dollar and stocks is at historical extremes, a failure of the dollar to break above its 50-DMA would be a plus for stock market bulls.

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