An Obituary: forward speculation in the JPMs is dead.
posted on
Aug 27, 2009 01:17PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Example: Let’s use all the contemporary excitement about Lithium with respect to “forward demand”, which of course, stirs up speculative fervor. As we all know hybrid autos with Lithium batteries are all the rage and there are at least 6 explorers very active and in their early stage development. One Canadian explorer in an initial stage of what could be a huge project in Nevada looks terrific and its stock has moved up significantly FROM 10 CENTS IN Dec. to $1.25 TODAY. It has a 43-101 estimate, with very large indicated and inferred resource. A scoping study is planned soon, and IF ALL GOES WELL, THE COMPANY IS AIMING FOR FIRST PRODUCTION IN 2013. Talk about speculative fever! By that time lithium batteries could have been replaced by a newer technology. And get this, lithium stocks are being promoted by the likes of Canaccord, one of the suspected big shorters of JPMs. (I hesitate to expound upon the further possible dark side their shenanigans).
WHAT IS, SHOULD BE, THE REAL SPECULATIVE VALUE OF JPMS WITH INITIAL OR NEAR-TERM PRODUCTION, SOME WITH A LARGE, IN-GROUND RESOURCE; HUGE INFERRED, INDICATED AND POTENTIAL RESOURCE…EITHER VERY PROFITABLE AND/OR HIGH GRADE; BLUE SKY POTENTIAL, IN FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENTS…OF WHICH ONLY A HANDFUL EXIST IN THE WORLD? (IE: ECU; SGR of many…and even little SFMI)
In contrast, we victimized gold bugs hold many stocks with all the benchmarks of what should be huge speculative upside, almost explosive here: annually decreasing production; a growing supply deficit of 1000 tons/year over increasing demand; rare-to-zero high grade discoveries; virtually no elephants in the world; decreasing grades for large producers with increasing costs of production; mine closures; drastically reduced exploration by the large producers over the last ten years; drastically reduced market supply from the world’s central banks selling into the markets; huge demand increase and buying, both nontransparent and apparent from the East, Russia, ME, Europe (private), SA, Asia and now growing in NA, and some central banks now beginning to purchase gold. To make matters worse for the Cartel, their western central bank partners have sold off at least 15,000 tons of their total world central bank reserves to suppress the gold price, which represent a portion of the global of 35,000 tons. It is suspected that it is far worse than this and that the US has virtually none of its 8,000 tons of vaulted gold left (an act of treason against the American people). Hence we see an illegal denial to GATA to seek an audit of the US gold reserves via the Freedom of information Act. Let’s not forget Barney Frank blocking a congressionally requested audit of the Federal Reserve. Then, there’s all the chatter of a new world currency based on a basket of currencies and gold certificates.
Well, I’m not telling you all anything new. What I am saying is that, if speculative investment in junior lithium explorers 4 years away from production with massive ongoing capital requirements is skyrocketing, why aren’t we holders of the JPMs more positive? Why? Because we’ve been successfully railroaded by highly paid liars in to believing that we must have our goods on the table in order to sell them. I note that even those I very much respect and consider experts that post on certain BBs, bright, educated people…have indeed succumbed…or been numbed. Let’s put it another way, we do not even dare to value our in-ground resources as tier one capital, which the banks can leverage up as much as 20 times…and even a thousand times via derivatives. Let’s not even get in to such comparisons as “indicated” and “inferred”…all based on a debasing currency and promises to pay.
I use Lithium in the above comparison as an example only…and probably a poor one at that since we could compare the PE forward earnings of the S & P 500 or forward expectations of US business earnings as another.
All the tools available to the corrupt, metastasizing clique in power that has grabbed the government of the people of the United States of America and much of the western world by the nuts have been and are ever more desperately being used to deny the value of gold and silver. You have to hand it to them though; they have cleverly, incessantly engineered and “revised” the original, simple concept of the gold certificate (a paper promise on a gold deposit that originated in the 16th century) into a Rubik’s Cube of paper deceit that is almost impossible to understand, even by most in the investment industry.
CLARION CALL TO GOLD BUGS: LET’S GET BACK TO REALITY
“Historically the longer a commodity is depressed in price the higher it will rise when the manipulation ends. This is due to the fact that increased production requires a rising price to provide incentive for the producer.” Peter De Graaf