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Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.

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Message: Dialing for pennies

Re: Dialing for pennies

posted on Sep 15, 2009 05:16PM

Hi pic

" I may have been one. Now I notice Sharkie saying it will take a new high above $1030 to do the trick."

Very interesting; $1035 +/- is a number my model pukes out implying that we will then have a confirmed moved beyond $1000. (e.g. not to expect a few more moves back below that level.) The model still indicates volitility, but also indicates that if we get over $1035 before Dec, it could get "out of range". That is a warning I placed in a few years ago that indicates any value that looks statistically improbable. My gut tells me that $1035 is actually likely, but that is the difference between silicon and brain cells.

When I get a high volitility value I play with the input to see how the model reacts to various changes. One interesting note is that if silver continues to outpace gold % wise, the model predicts volitility would reduce, but not the anticipated price slope. But you know what the say about statistics and liars.

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