Future Production Based on ECU News Release
posted on
Sep 26, 2009 12:40AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
I have calculated ECU's future precious metal production based on their 9/24/09 news release, and the future looks very good. Our future production will be the sum of our current 500 tpd oxide mill operation plus the proposed added 400 tpd circuit consisting of 1/3 pyrite/gold tailings and 2/3 low grade oxide from a stockpile.
For the current 500 tpd operation, the news release said that gold content is increased by 225% by adding 7% pyrite concentrate to the mixture. This is 35 tpd of pyrite. A 225% increase means production will be 3.25 times previous yields. They did not say how much the silver production is increased by the pyrite mix, but for the purpose of this estimate I will assume 1/2 of the increase of the gold ie 112.5% or 2.125 times as much.
The average gold production for the last 4 months was 548 ounces per month and the average silver production was 16,368 ounces per month. If we increase these values for the 7% pyrite inclusion we get production of 1781 ounces of gold and 34,782 ounces of silver per month from this 500 tpd operation.
For the proposed 400 tpd new circuit, the anticipated yield for the gold is 55% and we will assume the same for silver. I am not sure if metal content of the pyrite/gold tailings is the same as for the pyrite concentrate, but I think it is. Maybe another poster could verify or explain the difference. Based on previous news releases, the pyrite contains 20.6 g/tonne Au and 151 g/tonne Ag. They did not say what the metal content of the low grade stock pile is, but I think an assumption of 1 g/tonne Au and 90 g/tonne Ag is reasonable. Using 1/3 pyrite (133.33 tpd) and 2/3 low grade (266.67 tpd) and the 55% recovery, this circuit should produce around 1598 ounces of Au and 23,415 ounces of Ag per month.
When we combine the production of the two operations we get 3,379 ounces of Au and 58,197 ounces of Ag per month. At current prices of $990 gold and $16 silver this is $4,276,362 per month. Using a stockpile of 35,000 tonnes of pyrite and a burn rate of 168.33 tonnes per day, there is enough pyrite to supply this senerio for about 7 months. The production would then be $29,934,534 of precious metals over this 7 month period.
After the pyrite runs out, the company should be able to continue production at 900 tonnes per day using just oxide ore. Based on the NI43-101 oxide average metal contents of 2.95 g/tonne Au and 162 g/tonne Ag, a feed of 900 tpd, and an Au recovery of 80% and an Ag recovery of 60%, we should produce 2049 ounces of Ag per month and 84,386 ounces of Au per month. At the current prices this is $3,378,686 of metal per month.
The company could produce $45 million of precious metals in a 12 month period if they fire on all cylinders.
The value of the companies average monthy metal production the last 4 months has been $800,000 worth per month using current prices. Once the company starts producing $2 million, then $3 million, then possibly $4 million per month the shorts will have no where to hide and the stock price should at least triple. I don't make mistakes with numbers and the above is what the numbers show. My production estimates are in conformance with the company's estimate which according to GWR was given to be $2.4 million per month at the recent annual shareholders meeting. This $2.4 million per month was before they proposed adding the additional 400 tpd circuit.
Whenever there is a major undertaking like the new ECU mill there are growing pains. The company has been spending money and perfecting their operation in order to maximize future gains. This is how capitalism used to work. I don't know how much the new 400 tpd circuit and the recently built roaster cost. I believe the Hecla oxide mill cost about $9 million and I am sure there were refurbising costs. If the company finishes this 900 tpd system for anywhere near $15 million it will have been a bargin. Back when ECU was talking about buying a 1500 tpd new mill the estimated cost was $70 million, so to get a 900 tpd operation for $15 million is pretty good.
Down the road hopefully ECU can do major drilling to improve their M&I resources and explore the massive sulphides. As they are doing this hopefully the stock price will improve back to at least $3. The company can then prepare a bankable feasibility study. After the study is completed they should then get capital for a major 5,000 tpd sulphide mill operation while the share price is high in order to reduce dilution. Regards,
BB