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Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Message: from tonight's MIDAS report
Sunday, December 20, 2009
Will Shorts' nerves last out?
As noted on Friday, the CME Final report indicates that Thursday’s down $28.80 floor session (and $46 intraday range) saw open interest rise 475 lots (1.48 tonnes) to 502,930 contracts. This surprising result indicates that much of the not-extremely heavy trade (volume 258,576 lots, 15% above estimate) was short selling.
Friday’s NY session saw gold reject two quite serious morning sell-off attempts, the latter taking spot gold down to $1,098. A strong rally took gold up $15 in two hours, followed by a modest retreat such that the floor session ended with Feb gold settling at $1,111.50, up $4.10. By 4PM gold was some $2 higher, $13 above Thursday’s poor stock market close level. The CME Preliminary, posted early on Saturday, indicates volume was 184,815 lots – 16.2% above estimate.
Gold shares responded rather well. The HUI closed up 2.13% and the XAU up 1.53%, both close to their highs of the day which were made when gold was peaking more than $4 higher just before 1PM.
Paradoxically, MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus dropped a point to 77%, its lowest level since July 16th (when gold closed at $935.40). The HGNSI was unchanged at 53.8% while the GLD ETF added a comparatively substantial 6.09668 tonnes to 1,126.61109 tonnes.
Local Vietnam gold stood at a $37.59 premium to world gold of $1,114.75 early on Monday morning (Friday $35.28/$1,107.48).
In an early Christmas to gold’s friends the Russian Central Bank disclosed its November gold holdings early: up some 200,000ozs (6.22 tonnes). The Bank has already indicated an intention to buy 30 tonnes from the state repository, Gokhran, this month. See
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/centr
al-bank-to-buy-gold-from-gokhran/391362.html
With trading opportunities thinning to the New Year, any commercially motivated shorts have to hope Eastern consumers do not recover quickly from "sticker shock". Monday, December 21, 2009 Significant Spec shift on $US? Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $2.11, PM $4.43, with world gold at $1,115.28 and $1,113.82. Adequate and ample for legal imports. The rupee was soft, closing down 0.3% at $1= R46.84 and the stock market closed at a 6-week low, down 0.71%. The Indian retail buyer appears to have digested the slump in gold and is likely to be a steady buyer at these levels. As noted earlier, local Vietnam gold stood at a $37.59 premium to world gold of $1,114.75 early this morning (Friday $35.28/$1.197.48). Interestingly, the Shanghai Gold Exchange active contract closed at a $1.58 premium to world gold of $1,114.70 this morning. This peculiar market had stayed at a discount virtually continuously throughout gold’s slide. TOCOM sold. On day session volume equal to 13,576 NY contracts, open interest slipped 3.169 tonnes (1,019 NY) and the public cut 2.19 tonnes from their long (3.3%). Reuters reports that the Russian Finance Ministry this morning issued a statement to the effect that the purchase by the central bank of 30 tonnes of gold has been concluded. Reviewing the CFTC data today The Garman Letter observes "we can no longer say, as we have so often in the course of the past several months, that the boat is heavily laden, or heavily tilted, in the directional bet against the US dollar. Instead, the directional bet now, by the "specs" is dollar positive." This could be an important development for gold. Today gold moved up $2 or so on the Asian open and the moved essentially sideways until running into selling pressure – viewed in all currencies – as the US stock market opened. While a certain amount of US/$ triumphalism is to be expected at this time of the year, it will simply make the Asian gold dealers busier. Estimated volume at 9AM (before the selling bout) was 41,345, of which some 30,000 was done overnight.
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