A few wise thoughts from Dow Theory veteran Richard Russell...

Regards - VHF

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Richard Russell: "We're On The Path For Fireworks in 2010

December 29, 2009

“I’m thinking that we’re on the path for fireworks in 2010. The reason I say that is because the federal deficits are running into the trillions of dollars. The roll-over of debt coming up in the next two years defies comprehension. For instance, in the next two years the US must roll over $2.5 trillion. Worldwide, banks during the coming two years will have to roll over $7 trillion. On top of that commercial real estate in the US has $750 billion to roll over. Whether all this debt can be successfully rolled over is doubtful, but one thing is clear - interest rates will go up. This will have an immediate impact on housing. Nobody can negotiate a mortgage now - and worse, nobody has the money to buy a house for cash.

“In the face of the deflationary events described above, the Fed will have to create a massive torrent of money. This should be highly inflationary - on top of the forces of deflation and semi-depression. Thus the base will be set for an inflationary depression, during which time the very viability of the dollar will come under suspicion.

“Since the dollar makes up a part of almost every nation’s reserves, the worth of every fiat currency will come into question. There will be a frantic search for a currency that will preserve the purchasing power of one’s wealth and assets. The money that can do that is gold. Consequently we may see a total panic for physical gold. Secondary beneficiaries will be silver and platinum, which may be ‘reclassified’ as monetary metals.”