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Message: from Cannacord morning coffee letter, very bullish on silver

from Cannacord morning coffee letter, very bullish on silver

posted on Jan 21, 2010 09:07PM

The Megan Fox of precious metals. Exposure to silver, whether it be in bars, coins, ETFs or mining companies, is likely going to be prove to be a very attractive investment in coming years says Gluskin Sheff's Chief Economist & Strategist DavidRosenberg. Some perspectives on silver from Rosenberg on Tuesday included:

i) Looking at the latest Commitment of Traders report, showing the net non-commercial long and short positions for a variety of asset classes, Rosenberg noted what little attention silver gets even though gold and silver are driven by similar developments over time.

ii) The bullish sentiment on gold right now is infinitely higher than it is for silver; and keep in mind that while gold is the most malleable metal of all (the only metal that will look the same 1,000 years from now as it does today), silver pieces going all the

way back to pre-biblical times were the primary medium-of-exchange (fiat paper currency, in the overall scheme of things, is a relatively new phenomenon and a convenient one for politically sensitive central banks).

iii) The difference between precious metals and fiat money is that the latter is not backed by any physical asset and as such has no intrinsic value whatsoever – a medium of exchange, perhaps, but backed by nothing except its ‘legal tender’ status.

iv) Silver is very likely the metal that has the most industrial uses from batteries to mirrors to video equipment, so it is more than just a store of value as gold is. The silver price is more tan 60% below its prior peaks even after the impressive rally of the past year. And when you take a look at where silver trades to gold, which is still flirting near record highs, it would have to triple to get to where gold was in relative terms at the peak back in January 1980 (gold was trading near $740/oz – more than 30% below where it is today – when silver was trading at its record peak back in January 1980 at $45/oz). Relative to oil, silver could surge 4x from here and it still wouldn’t match the prior high in this relationship over three decades ago.

Wrapping things up, Rosenberg states: "Considering the problems that plague every major currency in the world, from the U.S. dollar, to the Yen, to the Euro, to sterling, and knowing from the McKinsey report that the need to monetize the surge in public debt will be required to cushion the economic blow from what will likely be another 5-6 years of deleveraging in the private sector, and given the much more stable supply outlook for silver (all the low-cost shallow mines on the planet have already been gutted) and where it trades relative to gold, not to mention what little attention the metals grabs and how under-owned it still appears to be, exposure to silver, whether it be in bars, coins, ETFs or mining companies, is likely going to be prove to be a very attractive investment in coming years."

Also out with a bullish report on silver was Credit Suisse, who's theme is: Scarcity and Utility. The brokerage takes a favourable view of investment demand for silver in 2010. Credit Suisse believes silver equities offer a compelling alternative to a portfolio of base and precious metals stocks, introducing a tangible and transferrable asset that increases diversification and offers leverage to the underlying. Industrial demand and ETF’s will be the key focus in 2010. In Credit Suisse's view, the silver market will likely be dominated by the demand side of the equation in 2010, and continued support from industrial demand and investment demand will play a dominant role as a swing factor in our supply/demand balance. Silver, more than its precious metals partner gold, has significant industrial demand rooted in sectors such as imaging, electronics, jewelry, coinage, superconductivity and water purification.

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