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Message: ECU Profitability

ECU Profitability

posted on Jan 28, 2010 10:19PM

Today's news release broke production for the months of November and December into oxide mill, sulphide mill, and pyrite concentrate (from sulphide mill). The production of dore bars from the oxide mill and the production of lead and zinc concentrates from the sulphide mill are sellable at this time and generate monthly revenue. The pyrite concentrate is not being sold at this time but can be processed in the roaster and added to the oxide mill in the future to increase production from the oxide mill. In other words the pyrite concentrate will generate revenue in the future but not yet. If we do not include the precious metals in the pyrite concentrate then for the two months combined, gold production was 1201 ounces and silver production was 44,055 ounces.

Using the average gold and silver prices for November and December, and assuming a 3% refining fee for the dore and a 10% refining fee for the concentrates, revenue from gold and silver for the 2 months should have been around $2,054,664. If we add in revenue from lead and zinc of $61,612, we have total revenues of $2,116,276. So we have now exceeded $1 million per month in sales. Being as the oxide mill cost $8 million, I think we made a good buy.

The news release also said that both gold and silver recoveries were low because of the high copper content and that the recoveries for both metals have been restored to normal in January as a result of process improvements. The release also said that production at the oxide mill for November and December were slightly above 600 tpd and that in January production has been increased to 650 tpd. As a result of these two improvements, silver production from the oxide mill in January will be about the total of November plus December. This would put January silver production from the oxide mill at 28,845 ounces. If we add the average monthly silver production from the sulphide concentrates of 7,605 ounces, we should get silver production of 36,450 ounces in January. As noted above the gold production should improve also and for the purpose of this estimate I will predict 800 ounces of gold in January. Using current prices and above fees, revenues from the precious metals in January should be around $1,428,167. If we add in the average monthly revenue from the lead and zinc of $30,810 we get total revenue of $1,458,977 for January.

There are still several improvements going on which will build on the revenue number estimated for January. First, I do not think much of the gold pyrite concentrate is being processed in the roaster and fed in the oxide mill yet. This concentrate has a very high gold content and once flowing will improve revenues greatly. Also the sulphide mill feed rate is being increased from around 100 tpd in November and December, to 320 tpd eventually. Lastly, ECU will be processing gold tailings in new tanks as described in a news release several months ago.

In the MD&A on Sedar for the 3rd quarter of 2009, ECU said that cash development costs for the quarter were $2,659,698 and that revenues were $2,223,241. Based on the above production rates for November and December, ECU was producing revenue over that period at the rate of $3,174,414 per quarter. Based on the above estimate for January, ECU will be generating revenues of around $4,376,931 per quarter. Assuming costs have increased due to increasing tonnage and processes, ECU should have been slightly profitable in Q4 2009 and will be quite profitable in Q1 2010.

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