sorry if this one has been posted here before..

GOLD MINERS VS. GOLD FUTURES

The Gold Futures ($GOLD) market has begun to capture traders' attention once again, for the developing technical patterns would suggest new highs above $1225/oz will materialize in the months ahead. Unfortunately, we haven't included a Gold Futures price here, but take our word for it: a rather bullish consolidation is confirmed, with prices having broken above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. This obviously would presume that we become buyers of the Gold Futures. However, that isn't the case when one considers the relative chart pattern of the Gold Miners ETF / Gold Futures Ratio (GDX:$GOLD), for the chart clearly demonstrates that one should be a buyer of GDX rather than $GOLD.

GDX_SPY-2-20-10

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/.a/6a0105370026df970c01310f225b13970c-pi

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2010/02/gold-miners-vs-gold-futures.html

The technical reasons are rather simple:
1) A very large trading range has formed between roughly .025 and .070; each level has been tested multiple times in sequence.
2) A larger bottom was forged in late-2008 much like that of late-2000. If the latter is like the former - and we do think it is, then the cycle wind will be at the back of higher ratio prices for several years further into the future. A minor mean reversion target would be the overhead 250-week moving average, which we think would provide only minor resistance until trading range resistance is once again tested.
2) A clear corrective process has developed in the latter half of 2009, which is above trendline support and mirrors the corrective process of the late-2001 period. Moreover, each of these corrective processes occurred with the 30-week stochastic rolling over from something less than overbought levels. If the current pattern is like that of 2001 - then sharply higher prices are ahead.

Thus, if one were bullish of Gold in general - then one should own the Gold Miners rather than the Gold Futures or Gold ETF (GLD). If were agnostic about the direction of Gold, then the evidence is sufficiently compelling that this would make a great hedged pairs trade.

Good luck and good trading,
Richard