Gartman comments on gold in today's letter
posted on
Jun 28, 2010 08:07PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Turning to the gold market, we remain, as we have
been for many months overtly bullish of gold, although
we shall have to admit that heretofore we’ve not been
bullish of gold in US dollar terms, but have instead
been bullish of it in foreign currency terms and
primarily in EUR terms. The problems attendant to the
European Union have weighed heavily upon the EUR,
and have helped our investment position accordingly.
Gold has risen from approximately €650 mid-summer
last year to €1015 this morning. That is an increase of
just a bit more than 55%. At the same time, gold has
risen from US$910 in June of last year to $1255 as we
write… a solid bull run of course, but at 38% far behind
that of gold in EUR terms. Gold in British Pound
Sterling terms has risen from £555 a year ago to £835
this morning; an increase of 50%, and again far
stronger than gold in US dollar terms.
However, after the “G-meetings” this weekend and
following the quiet, but rather obvious,
disdain/disrespect/dismay that the world shows for the
US government we can imagine… or fear… that gold
shall begin to strengthen more in US dollar terms than
it has in foreign currency terms. We can imagine in the
not too distant future either adding to our long positions
in gold in US dollar terms, holding that which we
already own in EURs and Yen et al.
Finally, we draw everyone’s attention to the chart at the
upper left of p.1 this morning by our friends, Pam and
Mary Ann Aden. We have argued in the past that many
markets, and especially the commodity markets, move
along rather common paths. Bull markets almost
always begin quietly and end in parabolic ascents. As
we’ve said many times in years past, over 50% or
more of a bull run comes in the last 10% of the time
frame of that market, and one gets the sense that that
shall happen in the gold market… again… at some
point in the future. It may be worth keeping this chart in
mind in the coming weeks and months.