...could we be in for a surprise? also anyone...
posted on
Jul 10, 2010 01:13AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
get the "premium " update and know what his 2011 target is?
.........
This week, however, we will turn to silver as this market provides us with particularly interesting long-term calls. Consequently, let's begin with the very-long-term chart (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)
The above chart has been featured in our updates several months ago when we discussed long-term targets for silver and gold.
Just like it was the case back then, it seems that silver prices would need to correct previous upswing twice before moving to new highs. Please note that once a new high is reached after a rally, there is a typical correction and then a move close to the previous high that does not take silver higher. It seems that this is what we have just seen.
Once this second trial fails, price corrects once again - at least 50% of the preceding upswing (as marked on the chart above) before moving much higher.
This means that if we have seen the second top for silver now (which is likely the case) then silver might need to move down to $14 - $15 level before it ignites a rally that takes it to new highs.
We realize that this is very discouraging news to silver and gold investors but it is our obligation to report what our analysis determines. Gold and mining stocks may also go substantially lower but confirmation from other techniques or signals is needed before validating this option as highly probable.
The upper section in this first chart for silver provides conclusive calls long-term. The Trix indicator normally does not imply a final bottom until a downward move has been followed by a correction and then an addition decline. This would be near the zero level for the Trix indicator. Above we see that we are beginning the second part of a corrective phase. This precedes our next rally and we expect to see a zero eventually. This would correspond to a final bottom possibly along with a possible decline to the $14 - $15 level.
This discussion has not been provided to scare you out of the precious metal sector. We do wish however to emphasize that the situation is quite serious. It is most important now to monitor all developments daily and react accordingly. Sunshine Profits has the tools and the expertise to keep our Subscribers informed. This is always our first priority.
The above chart indicates that we might be close to a local bottom, as the price of silver is right at the 200-day moving average. The Stochastic Indicator points towards the bottom possibly being in. The RSI however does not confirm this. So what does all this mean? The signals are presently mixed and unclear and we do not feel this benefits entering with speculative capital at this time.
This final chart for silver points to the bottom being in and a technical turning point also at hand. The Stochastic Indicator also identifies the bottom and a probable move upwards to follow.
Summing up, even though precious metals will likely move upwards slightly in the coming days, this may be the beginning of a bigger downswing in silver, gold and mining stocks. We caution that these moves higher may only be temporary (particular caution is necessary if one wishes to trade this move), as they are driven to a great extent by possibility of a consolidation in the Euro Index. Please note that this is not the end of the bull market for silver; in fact. In this week's Premium Update we provide a target for silver at the end of 2011, which is much higher than the 2008 high.
Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!
P. Radomski
Editor www.SunshineProfits.com