Welcome To The Golden Minerals HUB On AGORACOM

Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.

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Message: A Few Charts

Provided below is a quick summary of the latest charts painted by the manipulators last week. With low volume trades due to vacations and computers in almost complete control of every market, just about anything is possible this week.

Regards - VHF

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Gold fell $18 last week. Most of the decline occurred on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are trending lower with Stochastics trying to recover from oversold levels. Trading range during the past three months is $1,166.50 and $1,265.00 U.S. per ounce. Gold continues to outperform the S&P 500 Index.

Other interesting comments on gold:

  • Seasonal influences for gold and gold stocks start to turn positive at this time of year. According to Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide, gold starts to turn positive on July 12th and gold equities start to turn positive on July 27th. EquityClock.com shows gold starting to show seasonal strength near the end of July/beginning of August.
  • Fundamentals for gold remain positive. John Embry at Sprott Asset Management recently listed 17 reasons to own gold
  • Gold’s historic strong inverse relationship with the U.S. Dollar Index virtually disappeared in December. Correlation has been close to zero since mid December. A breakout would imply a return to its historic relationship. Technicals are not there yet, but should be watched closely.

Gold equity indices could be helped by strong second quarter earnings reports relative to the same period last year:

  • Second quarter revenues will benefit from higher gold prices. Gold averaged $1,197 U.S. per ounce in the second quarter versus $922 last year.
  • Second quarter costs for gold producers are higher. A Canadian investment dealer recently predicted that cost per ounce by major international gold producers will increase to $497 U.S. per ounce versus $474 U.S. per ounce last year.
  • Cash margins will increase
  • Second quarter earnings per share on average for international gold producers will increase by 50%.
  • News about development and exploration released in second quarter reports will be encouraging. Reports start to appear in the fourth week in July.
  • Gold equities and related ETFs have similar technicals to gold. They have developed three month trading ranges. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Stochastics are trying to bottom. Gold equities and related ETFs continue to outperform gold, an encouraging technical sign for both.

Preferred strategy is to start purchases at current prices and to add on weakness for a seasonal trade lasting until December.

Silver also remains range bound. Support is at $17.22 and its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indictors are neutral.

Ditto for Platinum! Support at $1,489.90 is holding.

Copper lost 12.4 cents per lb. last week. It continues to trend with the Shanghai Composite Index. Short term momentum indicators are neutral.

The CRB Index was virtually unchanged last week Resistance was found near the 266 level. Short term momentum indictors are neutral to over bought.

Crude oil also was virtually unchanged last week. Resistance was found at it 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are neutral to over bought.

The U.S. Dollar fell another 1.43 (1.70%) last week. The Index has fallen 7.0% in six weeks, an extraordinary event. It reached a range of support between 80.03 and 82.24. Short term momentum indicators are deeply oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.

The Euro gained 2.85 (2.25%) last week Short term momentum indicators are substantially overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Resistance exists in a band between 132.69 and 136.77.

The Canadian Dollar lost 2.22 cents U.S. (2.30%) last week. Most of the decline happened on Friday. MACD and RSI are neutral. Stochastics are short term overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.

The S&P 500 Index fell 13.08 points (1.21%) last week. All of the drop occurred on Friday. Intermediate trend remains down. Support is forming at 1,010.91. Its 50 day moving average currently at 1,090.21 proved to be a reliable resistance level for the third time in three months. MACD and RSI currently are neutral. Stochastics are short term overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 100.13 points (0.99%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Support may be forming at 9,614.32. The Average briefly traded above its 50 day moving average, but failed to hold. MACD and RSI are neutral. Stochastics are short term overbought and showing early signs of rolling over. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

The TSX Composite Index slipped 0.90 points (0.01%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Support may be forming at 11,065.53. The Index found resistance near its 50 day moving average once again. A Death Cross likely will be recorded as early as today. MACD and RSI are neutral. Stochastics are overbought and showing early signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive

The yield on 10 year U.S. Treasury notes fell 0.12% last week. Resistance exists near 3.15%. Intermediate trend is down.

The Baltic Dry Index fell another 9.6% last week. It remains in an intermediate downtrend.

The VIX Index gained 5.1% last week. Most of the gain was recorded on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are oversold.

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