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Message: What I found in the ECU share price vs short interest.

The plot of ECU share price against the changes in short interest is too disjointed to give any kind of inference. About the only plot that comes out is a scatter chart and there too few data points to get a good picture. The problem is that the data needs to be daily in order to see the direct influence. The data is in two week chunks giving values on the last trading day on or before the 15th and last day of each onth going back just over 18 months.

However if we look at the 10,000 foot level there are 4 demonstrated instances where the shorts piled on either to stem a fast rising share price or to pound it down from a local high.

The share price of ECU on Dec 15 08 was $.99. By Feb 28 09 just over 5 million short shares were added and ECU fell to .58

The share price of ECU on May 31 09 was $.79. By Aug 31 09 just over 1 million short shares were added and ECU fell to .48

The share price of ECU on Nov 15 09 was $.88 By Feb 01 10 just over 4 million short shares were added and ECU again fell to $.48

The share price of ECU on May 15 10 was $.79 By Aug 31 09 when .5 million short shares were added and ECU fell to $.48

Something interesting there when $.48 showed up at the end of two attacks attack. I believe we had another escursion into the high $.40's but it may have been lost to the two weeks between data points.

Though not highly correlated, there does show a tendency for shorts to increase to a rise in price and keep increasing until the rice trends down and then decrease at lower levels, but that is the way shorts are suposed to make money.

To do a very good job of this analysis would take daily values for short interest, ECU share price, Silver spot, and XAU/HIU. In two weeks short interest and share price could complete a complete in - out cycle. Also without including the spot price of silver, a big influence is just missing and skews results. So only the curdest of conclusions can be demonstrated given the current dataa I have. Wish it were better result!

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