Scruffy writing in MIDAS tonight - good article
posted on
Sep 07, 2010 05:39PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
The filth is in a corner. They need the price of the metals down for many reasons, but the world is turning form its reserve currency to metal as a global fiat crisis continues to emerge. This will change their power games forever! Of course the new york mafia is still strong in that the transition out of the US $ to some world reserve alternative will take a LOT of time. There are many obstacles to shifting from the US $ as the world’s reserve currency.
First, there is no infrastructure in place for a non-fiat solution. This would make a global gold standard very difficult and a global “commodities based” currency even harder.
Second, there is no reason to trust other fiat such as the euro, mark, ruble, frank, etc, as they are just as over produced as the other fiat currencies. Why trade one decaying fiat for another?
Third, there exists the momentum factor. How many nations that have held US $ for over 75 years would quickly and comfortable exchange their "reserves" for the Yuan or other fiat currency? There are significant challenges for the Yuan to assume the role of reserve global currency, the biggest being is that the exchange rate is controlled by a few men who have only their own best interest in mind and they do not have the global banking presence that would be necessary.
Fourth, the largest daily non-forex market exchange, is $s for oil. To achieve the status of reserve currency, the majority of oil exporting nations would have to accept and shift to a new currency. That is a very political and sensitive transition. It would be hard to get the Mid-east, South American, Russian and Canadian interests to agree to ANYTHING, let alone a new currency.
Fifth, there is not enough of any alternative currency to replace the $. The US $ is everywhere. It is available and recognized by financiers and peasants alike. The value of US $ denominated bonds, bank accounts, stock accounts, cash, debt, etc is probably more than that of the rest of the world’s fiat combined. Even if there was significant intent and agreement on the need and viability to change, this alone would make it a long and painful transition. Who could establish and who would accept a new exchange rate for $s to the new reserve currency. The transition could be messy, even bloody.
Sixth, there is the role of the US as a global super power. They have guns and armies on over 100 nations soil. They serve to protect and/or intimidate the vast majority of the world. This is a kind of carrot and stick feature but is in actuality a trust and fear factor.
Last, there is the overwhelming power/political influence. Those in power want desperately to remain in power. That means the world’s most powerful people currently control not only vast resources, but they have dominant influence over the decision makers in governments, banking, finance, manufacturing, transportation, media, etc. They will not allow a shift out of the US $ and into anything else, until the transition favors their remaining in power and most likely increases their stature in one way or another. Against all of the above, gold and silver are waging a historic and powerful war. Battles will be won and lost.
My personal opinion is that there will never again be a gold standard for global reserves. Any transition from the US $ to a new reserve currency will be accompanied by global stress and risk. What will happen is that when the transition to a new global reserve entity has finally been achieved, gold and silver will start out fairly valued in the new system. That value will be significantly higher with respect to purchasing power than today. Holding gold, silver and quality precious metal mining shares will get you through the transition with the least amount of stress and risk. Scruffy