"Whoa Nellie".

Argoz, I follow and respect every one of your posts, and your systematic analyses of ECU finances. The conclusion you give in your most recent is "a 30:1 PE is very reasonable for ECU at this stage which will put us at $1.20 per share by 2/1/10."

In this case however, there may be an element that could be added to determine the share price 2/1/2011 (Is that 1st Feb or 2nd Jan, 2011?) The element I m talking about is sentiment. (Sentiment includes anticipation, excitement, and terror)

Everyone who is a regular here kinda believes that ECU is way undervalued by way of shorting over the last couple of years (several posters have postulated by a factor of 3-5), and think the share price should today be over $2. Obviously this $2 price is not justified by earnings, but there is more in a share price than just earnings. Back when ECU was over $3, it didn't have any earnings. I wasn't around then, but I believe there was excitement and anticipation of hope going forward caused by great drilling results. The shorting of the last couple of years have sucked the exciting, hopeful life out of the share price, and that is why we have been posting about the elephants, and now the daily suppression and manipulation of closing prices.

So, when the hedgies decide that the dollar really is toast, and start shorting the Dow and going long jpms, they will first off cover the shares that they are short just now. Two million or so shorts (at $0.73) in ECU isn't that much for them, but it could give a pop to the price when covered. The first type of ECU purchaser.

The fire and passion for ECU will be rekindled by a mix of ingredients in place today.

Back in the heady $3 days, the excitement was generated by drilling results and the realization that there was a monster ore body below their feet. Last month, the last 2 or 3 nr showed drilling results better than that that shown in the NI4301 report, some results by a factor of 5. Going forward shortly, I think that this excitement will be reactivated when ECU announce that they are going to start exploring the massive sulphides that are down deep. The unspoken promise is that the ore body will grow to 1 billion ounces of silver equivalent or over. One billion ounces. If that number doesn't conjure up exciting speculative thoughts, then I wonder what will. Hope springs eternal for the speculator, the second type of ECU purchaser.

ECU will be attractive to more than hedgies and speculators however. Today we have 2 mills going, churning out gold and silver every day, and soon we will be analysing the conclusions ECU will draw from the scoping study about financing a 1500 tpd expansion. A gold and silver producer expanding production? Hmmm. That can't be bad. More gold and silver from production will appeal to the analyicals like Argoz (no slight intended, Argoz) - the third category of ECU purchaser.

Then we come to the gold bubble, where the sheeple realize than their money has to be put where there is a chance that it will retain some value. They see the stock market dropping, cause the hedgies are now shorting stocks and buying jpms. They see the dollar dropping, 'cause the US debt, in all of its many forms, (treasuries held by other countries, state and munucpal debts, etc., etc.), cannot and will not be repaid in the present form of the dollar. They can't buy gold and silver easily, if at all, cause there isn't any quantity of bullion available, and they are left with buying shares in gold and silver producers, which ECU has now become.

From Cockerels futuristic post yesterday: "The shares of junior exploration companies have gone ballistic. They double and triple in days, then double and triple again. Many have already risen ten-fold. You have several up 10,000%. No end is in sight. Your portfolio swells bigger every day. Your life is changing right in front of you at warp speed."

Also, in the 1Novacane post from yesterday there was a great point: " I say to him then, how many people do you know who owns even one ounce of gold? He says not a single person with the exception of some gold jewelry. I conclude by telling him, that I never saw a bubble where no one participated in it!" The fourth kind of ECU purchaser.

When the mania starts, ECU will be in a perfect storm for a rising share price: short covering and then purchasing by the hedge funds, speculators looking to cash in on the drilling excitement, the analytics who see future earnings, and the manic crowd who just want a company with gold or silver in its name.

Yes, I am looking for more than $1.20 per share. Every type of purchaser indicated above, the hedgie, the speculator, the analytic and the sheeple, wants to see one thing - an increase in share price and capital appreciation.

"Giddy up, Nellie."