Wheels Up - The end of the beginning
posted on
Oct 06, 2010 08:21PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Good article by Mexico Mike (our Coach ) in Midas tonight.
"Wheels up!
Hi Bill!
For me the expression 'wheels up' used to invoke images of a pickup truck in a cornfield after the unfortunate driver drank a few warm six-packs on a hot summer day. Well, I think we are on the verge of a more appropriate metaphor. The great PM bull market, which many people smarter than myself have referred to as the greatest bull market of our generation, has been underway now nearly ten years. During that time, the progress has been uncomfortable indeed. I would have imagined a great bull market to be about easy money, but in fact this has been a stressful test of commitment for many years and I have made and lost a million dollars of my own money during a very short duration.
I wrote a couple of weeks ago that I thought we were on the edge of a major move, either up or down. The Cartel crooks were sure to do all they could to paint the tape and illustrate a double top in the metals, while merrily shorting the hell out of the futures, all geared towards stalling this bull in its tracks yet again. And they tried. This time around however they have been undermined by the real shortage of physical bullion, and a weak dollar that wants to fold like a cheap bridge table. After a few days of indecision, it appears both gold and silver have broken out here, and this move is now being confirmed by a breakout in the mining stocks.
So perhaps at last we are on the verge of liftoff for the great PM bull market after all. There is another metaphor that is worth noting here. For a jet plane to take off, it must accelerate down the runway with throttles to the firewall. Half speed is not good enough. How many times in the last few years did it appear that the sector was on the verge of a breakout and then things were aborted? For me 2008 comes to mind. And for most of the last year, it seems we were all just taxiing back and forth along the runway. Even during the last couple of weeks as things were speeding up nicely, there were many who expressed the opinion that we had gone too far too fast.
This week has marked the time when I feel we can finally declare lift off. Wheels up, and ready to fly. I think there may be some turbulence yet ahead, and the ride may not be smooth, but we are airborne at last. My guess is that the COMEX shorts will be let off the hook with a mandatory cash settlement option. I think some nasty tricks are still lurking, perhaps with a huge increase in margin requirements to generate some selling into a frothy market. Who knows? But at least the message is out that the metals are for real.
A couple of years ago I had the great idea to give away 10-oz silver bars as Christmas presents to some of my friends. I was not expecting the awkward, uncomprehending silence when some of them opened their gifts. No problem, now I just give away gift cards and booze and everyone seems happier. But this week I got a couple phone calls from friends that have not shown any interest at all in precious metals in the past. They want to know where I bought those bars and how they can get more of them. This is a big deal. It is the start of a mania, when brand new participants become interested in a sector. Even the media is starting to cover the story with sincere interest.
The Cartel has used every sleazy trick along the way, but it looks like this big jumbo jet is lifting off. Perhaps this will also serve as a wake up call for others to get busy and shore up their own personal finances while there is still time to do so. With an election coming next month, I think the corrupt will be busy doing all they can to keep the overall market from falling apart, and that means even if they have to follow up on the concept of throwing money out of helicopters. So for now, I think the way ahead is clear to sustain the breakout and we may even get to make some money long the PM juniors for a change.
To paraphrase Winston, this is not the end, and its not even the beginning of the end, but it might just be the end of the beginning. Onward and upward then. And please keep those damn rockets out of sight for a while longer!
Cheers!
MexicoMike