A look at the numbers
posted on
Oct 17, 2010 01:47PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
"Using the converted numbers, from the database used by Micon but modified to remove the bulk mining in all veins excluding San Diego, we get new resources of 16.4Mt 3.48 g/t Au, 195 g/t Ag, 1.61% Pb and 1.97% Zn. Using recoveries obtained in metallurgical tests and current contracts (NSRs of 76% for gold, 64% for silver, 62% for lead and 41% zinc which can be improved, I am 100% certain), we would get between $4.32 and $5.19 total cost per oz for silver-eq. and $279 and $335 total cost per oz of gold-eq. If we were to use the credit method, we would be negative in both cases. Also that was calculated using prices of $1,087 for gold, $16.82 for silver, $0.90 for lead and $0.87 for zinc."
Some really interesting numbers to chew on from Bill Murphy’s correspondence with Michel.
From the above information that has been modified to remove bulk mining, as well as, the San Diego property we can assemble some back of the envelope values for the vein-mining operation at Valerdena.
Assuming Gold at $1350/oz and silver at $24.00/oz and using the upper range of $5.19 for total cost per oz for silver-eq, we can deduce the following:
From the ECU website, the average monthly silver-eq metal output for the months June, July & August, through both mills were approximately 90,000 oz silver-eq.
At $24/oz silver prices, that translates into $2.16 million average monthly gross revenue.
At $5.19 total cost/oz, that translates into $467,000 average monthly total cost.
Therefore, average total cash flow per month is $1.69 million net positive and translates into about $20 million per year, based on recoveries (that should improve), grades and costs stated above. This does not include the credit method for base metals!
Now the fun part…each additional $1 increase in the price of silver translates into $1 million net cash flow increase per year.Each additional 10,000 oz silver-eq output per month translates into another $2.25 million net cash flow increase per year.
Hopefully Argoz, gwr or some of the other inclined posters can comment or go over the numbers.