The latest charts from last week...

Regards - VHF

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Gold added another $21.40 U.S. per ounce last week. Weakness on Friday was triggered by reversal of the U.S. Dollar. Its $1,384 technical target based on the breakout above resistance at $1,265 was slightly exceeded last week. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. Downside to its 50 day moving average at $1,272 or to the top of its previous trading range at $1,265 would be a reasonable correction within a long term uptrend.

Despite gold reaching an all time high, the TSX Gold Index slipped last week. The Index is lower now than closing levels reached four weeks ago. Gold equity indices have a history of moving flat to lower in October followed by gains to December.

Silver gained another $1.07 last week. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. A correction to its 50 day moving average at $20.41 is possible.

Platinum slipped $11 per ounce last week. Resistance at $1,755 was tested unsuccessfully. Momentum indicators are overbought and have started to roll over.

Copper gained another 6.45 cents per lb. last week thanks mainly to strength in the Shanghai Index. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.

The grain ETN was virtually unchanged last week.

The CRB Index added 0.32% last week. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking. The Index fell sharply on Friday on strength in the U.S. Dollar. Look for more of the same this week.

Crude oil has a history of peaking near the end of September and moving lower until late January.

Crude Oil Futures (CL) Seasonal Chart

History is repeating. Crude oil peaked in the first week in October. It fell another 1.53% last week. Resistance is forming at $84.62. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking. Weakness will be accentuated with strength in the U.S. Dollar.

Gasoline fell $0.06 per gallon (2.8%) last week and dropped below its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and have rolled over.

The U.S. Dollar Index fell another 0.27 last week and broke through another support level at 76.60. Important! The U.S. Dollar Index completed a rare, significant “outside reversal day” on Friday. The stage is set for a significant short term recovery from a substantially oversold level. Short term momentum indicators are showing early signs of bottoming. A recovery to its breakdown level at 80.08 is a reasonable move within an intermediate downtrend.

Conversely, the Euro gained 0.45 last week. Important! The Euro completed a rare, significant “outside reversal day” on Friday. The stage is set for at least a short term correction in the Euro. Downside risk during a reasonable correction within an intermediate uptrend is to the top of its previous trading range at 133.34. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking.

The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged last week. After briefly moving above “par” early last week, the Dollar unsuccessfully testing resistance at 100.51. Support is near 93 cents U.S. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking.

The S&P 500 Index gained 11.04 points (0.95%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Support is at 1,039.70. Resistance is at 1,219.80. The Index remains well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking. Intermediate downside risk is to its 50 day moving average currently at 1,115.50.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 56.30 points (0.51%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Support is at 9,936.62. Resistance is at 11,258.01. The Average is well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains mixed. Intermediate downside risk during a correction is to its 50 day moving average currently at 10,567.

The TSX Composite Index added 73.48 points (0.59%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Support is at 11,065.53. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains mixed. Intermediate downside risk is to its 50 day moving average currently at 12,065.14.

The yield on 10 year Treasuries rose 0.20% last week. Short term momentum indicators have started to recover from oversold levels.

The Baltic Dry Index gained another 2.4%, an encouraging sign for world trade.

The Volatility Index fell another 8.1% last week. Short term momentum indicators are oversold and trying to bottom with the Index near long term support.