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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Gold & Silver Will Breakout to the Upside - James Turk

Oct
26

Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price headed north the moment that trading began in the Far East on Monday, as the dollar headed south. This wondrous state of affairs lasted until a few minutes after the London open at 3:00 a.m. Eastern time, just as the price broke above $1,350 spot. Then, at that precise moment, the dollar turned on a dime and [in fits and starts] began to recover... and the gold price rise got cut off at the knees and traded sideways around $1,345 spot until precisely 9:00 a.m. Easter time six hours later.

Starting at nine, a willing seller showed up and the gold price declined to its low of the day [$1,332.40 spot], which was shortly after 11:00 a.m. Eastern time. From that low, gold recovered quite nicely into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m.

The silver price pretty much duplicated the gold price... and the two charts look awfully similar. Silver's highs and lows came at slightly different times, but other that, the silver price was influenced by the same factors that drove the gold price.

There were no changes in either GLD or SLV yesterday... but, for the week just past, Zürcher Kantonalbank in Switzerland reported a decline in both their gold and silver ETFs. Gold declined 23,352 ounces... and the silver ETF showed a withdrawal of 471,684 ounces. I thank Carl Loeb for this data.

The U.S. Mint had a sales report on Monday. The sold another 4,500 ounces of gold in the gold eagle program, plus another 250,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date they're up to 83,000 ounces and 2.6 million respectively.

Over at the Comex-approved depositories on Friday, they reported a pretty big draw-down on their silver inventory. This time it was 802,519 ounces... all of it out of Brinks, Inc... and the link is here.

The machinations of the world's reserve currency were a strong factor in the price of both metals yesterday. But I always wonder [when prices turn on a dime as they did at 3:00 a.m. Eastern time yesterday] who has the ability to spot a turn in the dollar and sell the precious metals at exactly that moment in time as well. I would guess that it's the same entity, as that's the only way I figure that it could work with such exquisite timing.

I also looked at the two hour price decline in both gold and silver that began at 9:00 a.m. [just before the equity markets opened] with deep suspicion as well, as it really didn't fit that well with the pattern of the rising dollar. But maybe I'm just looking for black bears in dark rooms that aren't there.

The gold stocks hit their low at 1:00 p.m... which was gold's secondary low in New York yesterday afternoon. Then, like the gold price itself, the precious metals stocks recovered, but got sold off a touch going into the close. The HUI finished up 1.46%. Most silver stocks had a really good day.

The CME's Daily Delivery report showed that 56 gold and 89 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Wednesday. The main issuer was JPMorgan in both metals... and they're still trading in their proprietary account. The link to the action is here.

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G20 inks pact to avert trade war

As per usual on Tuesday, I have a lot of stories, so I hope you have time to wade through them all. The first one is Reuters piece from this past weekend... and has to do with the big meeting in South Korea, where the Group of 20 major economies agreed on Saturday to shun competitive currency devaluations, but stopped short of setting targets to reduce trade imbalances that are clouding global growth prospects. The headline reads "G20 inks pact to avert trade war"... and the link is here. We'll see how long this truce lasts.

7 banks closed in Fla., Ill., Kan., Ariz.

Here's a story that was sent to me by reader Scott Pluschau on the weekend. It's posted over at finance.yahoo.com... and the headline reads "7 banks closed in Fla., Ill., Kan., Ariz." That brings to 139 the number of banks that the FDIC has close so far this year... and another $450+ million dollar hit to the FDIC. I'll bet that there are around ten or twenty times that number that are really insolvent if all the facts were made known. The link to the story is here.

Interview with Chris Whalen

My column wouldn't be complete these days without some sort of story about the on-going trials and tribulations of the real estate market in the U.S. Here's a King World News interview with Chris Whalen on the whole foreclosure mess. There are no flies on this guy. I learned a lot from this interview... and even though it runs about fifteen minutes... it's well worth your time. The link is here.

Water Scarcity a Bond Risk, Study Warns

Here's a really interesting story that I'm sure most people haven't given a thought to... this writer included. It's courtesy of Australian reader Wesley Legrand and is from last week's edition of The New York Times. The municipal bonds that help finance a major portion of the nation’s water supply may be riskier than investors realize, because their credit ratings do not adequately reflect the growing risks of water shortages and legal battles over water supplies, according to a new study. Food for thought... and even if you don't read the whole article, the photo that accompanies it is well worth looking at. The headline reads "Water Scarcity a Bond Risk, Study Warns"... and the link is here.

Proprietary traders weigh up new options

This next piece is out of the Sunday edition of London's Financial Times. One group working for the banks that is already feeling the harsh light of reform are proprietary traders, who are entrusted to place bets with their bank’s own money. Based on the banks’ initial changes, there seems little room for interpretation. These jobs, once celebrated for their mystique and potentially massive bonuses, will soon be obsolete. We are, of course, still waiting for that to occur in the precious metals market... as JPMorgan et al are still trading for their house accounts. The headline to this article, which is headlined "Proprietary traders weigh up new options", is well worth the read. I thank Washington state reader S.A. for sending it along... and the link is here.

Goldman says Fed faces $4 trillion hole

Here's Scott Pluschau's second contribution to today's column. It's a piece from the finance.fortune.cnn.com website that's headlined "Goldman says Fed faces $4 trillion hole". Talk about 'shock and awe'... economists at Goldman Sachs estimate the Federal Reserve may need to buy a staggering $4 trillion worth of assets such as Treasury securities to get the economy rolling again. It's not a long article, but I consider it a must read... and the link is here.

Goldman Advises Clients to Front Run the Fed Via POMO

As I pointed out last week, most times when the Fed has a POMO [Permanent Open Market Operation] where they give free money to the primary dealers to support the stock market, the stock market rises. Well Goldman Sachs has finally figured that out and has advised their clients to front-run the market accordingly. Here's a zerohedge.com piece sent to me by reader Peter Handley that bears the headline "Goldman Advises Clients to Front Run the Fed Via POMO". It's a short read... and the link is here.

CFTC takes aim at "runaway robotic trades": Chilton

The following Reuters story turned up as a GATA dispatch yesterday. The headline reads "CFTC takes aim at "runaway robotic trades": Chilton". If he and the CFTC take as much action on this as they do on the grotesque short positions in both silver and gold on the Comex, the High Frequency Traders don't have a think to fear from these guys. So far, the CFTC is all talk and no action on just about anything of real importance. The link to the story is here.

Graph of the U.S. M3 money supply

Before I get into my precious metal-related stories today, here's a graph of the U.S. M3 money supply that Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com was kind enough to provide yesterday.

Advisers Try to Tame Investors' Appetite for Gold

My first gold-related story is from Sunday's edition of The Wall Street Journal. The headline pretty much says it all... "Advisers Try to Tame Investors' Appetite for Gold". Because the story is subscription protected, here is the GATA release which contains the entire story in the clear... and the link is here.

Interview with gold analyst Mark Leibovits

Next is a video interview with gold analyst Mark Leibovits that's posted over at Canada's Broadcast News Network that's well worth your while. Although most of his work is in technical analysis of the precious metals market... he's not blind to the other factors that are currently influencing [and will continue to influence] the price. Even though one of the interviewers turns devil's advocate, Leibovits runs right over her. The clip runs a bit over six minutes... and is a must watch [at least in my opinion]... and the link is here.

James Turk - Gold & Silver Will Breakout to the Upside

In an interview on Sunday night with Eric King of King World News, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk stuck his neck out. The upward breakout in gold and silver and the gold and silver mining shares starts now, Turk said. This is a very short must read blog headlined "James Turk - Gold & Silver Will Breakout to the Upside"... and the link is here.

The Gold Symposium

From our gold bug friends in the "land down under" comes news of a conference called The Gold Symposium that's to be held in Sydney on November 8-10th. James Dines is to be one of the big keynote speakers. So all you gold and silver enthusiasts that are in that area of Australia and wish to attend, can find out everything you need to know about it by clicking here.

John Embry - Gold & Silver Commercial Signal Failure

Here's another King World News interview that Eric just slid into my inbox in the wee hours of this morning. It's another short blog that features my good friend John Embry, chief investment strategist at Sprott Asset Management in Toronto. It's not a long read... but it's a must read. It looks like something out of one of his speeches... or maybe a big quote from one of his monthly commentaries over at Investor's Digest of Canada. It's headlined "John Embry - Gold & Silver Commercial Signal Failure"... and the link is here.

Silver Money for Americans

My last precious metals story is your long read of the day... and it's all about silver. It's also another must read as well. Here's the preamble that Chris Powell wrote in his GATA release yesterday evening... "Hugo Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, today proposed for the United States the same mechanism that he has long been advocating in Mexico... the gradual re-monetization of silver as the first step toward the restoration of a system of sound money. His essay is titled "Silver Money for Americans" and you can find it at the association's Internet site, Plata.com linked here.

¤ The Funnies

¤ The Wrap

The idea of having no metal backing to a currency would have been dismissed as absurd as recently as the 19th century. When purely paper money became the medium of exchange, the idea of deliberately debasing it would have been dismissed as absurd and perilous until very, very recently. The idea of holding gold or silver, rather than paper money, was around for a very long time, but went out of fashion briefly. It's back... for a long run.- Don Coxe, Coxe Advisors LLP

Everything was going as it should in both gold and silver yesterday. But once the dollar reversed at 3:00 a.m. Eastern time on the button, there was someone there to make sure that the precious metal prices responded in kind... and immediately.

But, except for that, it was a pretty good day all around. Volume was pretty decent in both metals again yesterday. It's options expiry today for both gold and silver... and for the futures market on Wednesday. Last day of trading for the October contract is on Thursday... and first day notice for delivery into the November contract is on Friday. November is not a big delivery month in either gold or silver. All the action will be in December, which is a huge month for both metals... so November's trading action could get interesting, particularly as we approach the end of the month.

Not very much happened in Far East trading during their Monday... but now that London is open, we have another 3:00 a.m. dollar rally underway, with the precious metals acting accordingly. Volumes seem to be average. We'll have to wait and see what this turns into as the trading day progresses in London... and then in New York.

Today is Tuesday, the cut-off for Friday's Commitment of Traders report. As I've noted here several times over the past month, there has been a recent record of extreme volatility in prices on this date, that somehow doesn't get reported in Friday's COT. Will today turn out to be a day like that? That's a good question... and we'll find out soon enough.

I've been advised by the good folks at Casey Research that, along with the name change, there is to be a price increase for CR's Big Gold report. It's been selling for a huge discount [US$39] for the last couple of years, but that's about to change. At the moment, CRHQ says that this offer is for subscribers only, but that may be subject to change... and I'll let you know about that in tomorrow's column! This week [and this week, only... up until October 29th] they are allowing current subscribers to lock in the current annual rate of $39 for the lifetime of their subscriptions. If you're already a subscriber, you've only got a couple of days to act... so I suggest you think about it hard and fast... and the link is here. The new price of Big Gold after October 29th will be $129/year.

That's it for today... and I'll see you here tomorrow.

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