Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Dec 14, 2010 09:44AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
Central banks have rigged gold for decades: Jim Rickards. Gold, the biggest bull market of our lifetimes: Richard Russell. Hong Kong gold exchange to launch renminbi gold contract... and much, much more.
Yesterday in Gold and Silver
Gold hit its Monday low [around $1,380 spot] at 8:00 a.m. Hong Kong time in early trading in the Far East. From that low, the gold price worked its way slowly higher... and was up ten bucks shortly before London opened for trading. From that point, gold basically traded sideways into the New York open at 8:20 a.m. Eastern time. The gold price made it through the $1,400 mark for a nanosecond moments after the London p.m. gold fix was in at 10:00 a.m. in New York... and didn't do much [or wasn't allowed to do much] after that point... and finished up less than 1% from its Friday close. This wasn't very good positive price action considering the fact that the world's reserve currency got absolutely smoked yesterday.
The silver chart looked pretty similar to the gold chart... except the price gain was more substantial. Silver's low was at the same time as gold's low... and its high [$29.73 spot] was pretty much the same time as gold's high. Ted Butler felt that JPMorgan was probably covering short positions... and maybe some of the Raptors were taking profits as well. But, with silver being the talk of the town these days, it won't be long before we're going to see upside price action that absolutely dwarfs the 3.03% gain we saw in silver yesterday. More on that in the 'Critical Reads' section.
The dollar rose about 20 basis points between the Far East open and 1:00 p.m. Hong Kong time during their Monday trading day... which is midnight in New York. This was the dollar's zenith... and it slowly headed lower... but really didn't pick up a head of steam until about 10:30 a.m. in London trading, with the low coming about 1:20 p.m. in New York, about eight hours later. From top to bottom, the world's reserve currency fell a hair under 120 basis points. That's a lot!
The HUI, which is pretty much tied to how the big cap gold stocks are doing, only finished up 1.04% on the day, which was well off its high. Fortunately, the silver shares did much better overall... and my own portfolio certainly reflected that again yesterday... as it has been doing every day since we hit the silver price 'bottom' last Wednesday. Yesterday's share price action in gold wasn't helped by the fact that the general equity markets rolled over hard starting shortly before 3:00 p.m. in New York.
The CME Delivery Report showed the smallest deliveries since the beginning of December... with only 4 gold and 28 silver contracts posted for delivery tomorrow. Nothing to see here.
The GLD ETF did not have a report yesterday... but over at SLV, they showed a withdrawal of 1,612,743 ounces troy. Since there has been no negative price action to warrant such a large withdrawal... my guess is that this silver was needed elsewhere.
In the week that was over at Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank, they reported a 34,505 ounce increase in their gold ETF... plus a whopping increase of 1,918,804 ounces of silver! That amount of silver, dear reader, adds up to about 15% of all the silver that was produced on Planet Earth during the week! Ted wondered how long it took 'da boyz' to scrape that amount together. As always, I thank Carl Loeb for those numbers.
The U.S. Mint had a rather large sales report yesterday. It showed that 14,000 ounces of gold eagles were sold... along with a rather large 750,000 ounces of silver into their silver eagle program. Month-to-date... 22,500 ounces of gold and 1,422,000 ounces of silver have disappeared in the mint's eagle program. I truly hope that you're getting your share!
Not to be outdone on the silver scene... the Comex-approved depositories showed that a very chunky 1,245,654 ounces of silver were withdrawn from their warehouses on Friday, with most of it coming out of Brink's, Inc... and Scotia Mocatta. The link to this activity, which is worth a look, is here.
With all this frantic in-out activity in silver, Ted Butler feels that there's a lot of 'robbing Peter to pay Paul' going on. I agree.
Before getting to my rather large selection of stories, here's the Dow/Silver ratio graph that goes back to almost 'Day One' of the bull market in the precious metals. What once took 2,500 ounces to buy... can now be had for a hair under 400 ounces. I thank my friend Bryan Bishop for sharing it with us... and it's worth spending a couple of minutes on.
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As I hinted at in the previous paragraph, I have a big pile of stories for you today... a lot of which are silver-related. Now that the metal is 'in play' world wide... it's just a matter of how much longer before this whole price-fixing racket by JPMorgan et al starts to unravel in earnest. I get a sense that the really big-money sharks are starting to circle what they now see as a mortally wounded beast. The chance to stick it to JPMorgan and the other New York bullion banks [and make boat loads of money at the same time] will be just too much for them to resist. It's payback time, boys... so go get 'em!!!
But, before getting to all that, there are other issues that deserve your attention... as this past weekend was a busy one, news wise. My first story today [courtesy of Nick Laird] is from the Saturday edition of The Telegraph. The headline reads "Market alarm as US fails to control biggest debt in history". US Treasuries last week suffered their biggest two-day sell-off since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. The borrowing costs of the government of the world’s largest economy have now risen by a quarter over the past four weeks. I guess that's one of the reasons that the world's reserve currency took it on the chin yesterday. The link to the story is here.
Along with the above story, Nick sent along this wonderful graph he headlined "A Bond Collapse Cometh???". Bill Gross isn't a happy camper after his bond fund was reported to have taken its biggest hit ever. The graph tells all.
Today's next offering comes from reader 'David in California'. It's a zerohedge.com piece that's headlined "Easter Egg Out Of The BIS: US Banks Are On The Hook To The PIIGS By Over $350 Billion". It's a short article with a lot of eye-opening graphs... and it's certainly worth a couple of minutes of your time... and the link is here.
Here's a piece from Congressman Ron Paul's website that showed up as a GATA release last night that Chris Powell headlined "Transparency for the Fed is my main objective." Now that Ron is the chair of the congressional subcommittee that oversees the Federal Reserve, he outlines his plan of action in this short piece headlined "Audit the Fed in 2011". I feel that it's worth your time... and the link is here.
Just so you recognize how much things have changed for Ron Paul... here's a big story about him that showed up in yesterday's edition of The New York Times. The headline reads "Rep. Ron Paul, Republican loner, comes in from the cold". The article is subscriber protected... but can be found posted in the clear in this GATA release linked here.
Washington state reader S.A. brings us our next read of the day. This is from yesterday's edition of The Wall Street Journal... and bears the headline "CFTC Chief Feels Need for Speed". The 'long knives' are out for CFTC chairman Gary Gensler, both inside and outside of his agency. Thursday's CFTC meeting should be an education... and we've only got two more days to go. The link to the story is here.
The next story is also a posting over at zerohedge.com that's courtesy of reader Phil Barlett. It's the Reader's Digest version of a 3,500 word essay that came out in the Sunday edition of The New York Times. The headline of nytimes.com article reads "A secretive banking elite rules trading in derivatives". It's very heavy reading... and the link to the GATA release on this, is here. But, unless your a derivatives wonk, you'll probably find the 'executive summary' over at zerohedge.com more to your liking. I certainly did. The headline reads "Secret Banking Derivative Cabal Redux, And Why HFT In CDS Has So Far Been A Failure". It very much worth reading, as the proprietor over at zerohedge.com is an expert in this field. The link is here.
This next piece fits nicely into the above zerohedge.com story. It's courtesy of reader Peter Handley... and is a posting over at the Pragmatic Capitalism website. The story bears the alarming headline "The #1 Reason to be Scared Right Now...". The VIX is, once again, approaching record low levels. Is a major market correction in store for us? The link is here.
Next five items are WikiLeaks-related stories. I just shook my head at the first one. The headline reads "U.S. secretly helped Spain fight treasure hunter". A release from WikiLeaks showed that a U.S. diplomat turned over documents to Spain in order to aid their legal battle against Tampa's Odyssey Marine treasure hunting company. You can't make this stuff up... and I thank reader 'Charleston Voice' for sending it along. The link to the story [posted over at msnbc.com] is here.
Congressman Ron Paul also has his opinion of the WikiLeaks story and... needless to say... he's a huge fan of Julian Assange. The short read, headlined "Ron Paul’s Passionate Defense of Julian Assange and WikiLeaks on House Floor"... plus the C-SPAN video clip... is posted over at mediaite.com... and is linked here. I thank Swiss reader G.B. for sharing it with us.
The next WikiLeaks item showed up in The Guardian over the weekend... and this story is also courtesy of Swiss reader G.B. The headline reads "WikiLeaks may make the powerful howl, but we are learning the truth". The link to this commentary is here.
Of course, not all the stories out there about Julian Assange are sweetness and light. Here's another look at WikiLeaks as posted in the Sunday edition of The Telegraph. The headline reads "Now Wikileaks suffers its own leaks"... and is courtesy of reader G.G. WikiLeaks is facing questions over its finances as lawyers for its alleged main source, Pte Bradley Manning, said they had not seen a penny of tens of thousands of dollars raised by the site to help pay for his defence and promised to them three months ago. There have been key resignations because of deep concerns about its treatment of sources as well. The link to this story is here.
The last story about WikiLeaks is courtesy of reader Roy Stephens and was posted over at the German website spiegel.de yesterday. The very provocative headline reads "WikiLeaks and Press Freedom: Is Treason a Civic Duty?" "Is the state permitted to keep secrets from its citizens? Are citizens permitted to disclose such secrets? The answer to both questions is very simple: Yes." It's a long read... but if you have the time, it's worth it... and the link is here.
Today's next offering is also from Roy Stephens. This story was posted on Saturday over at the france24.com website. The headline reads "Chinese inflation surges to 28-month high of 5.1%". It's effects look likely to spread beyond food prices, putting pressure on the government to implement an interest rate hike. The link to the story is here.
Also from Roy is this Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering posted late Sunday night in London that's headlined "The eurozone is in bad need of an undertaker". There will be no Eurobond, no increases in the EU’s €440bn (£368bn) rescue fund, and no mass purchases of Spanish and Italian bonds by the ECB. Nothing. The system is politically and constitutionally paralysed. Spain and Portugal will be left nakedly exposed before their funding crunch in January. It's a longish read for Ambrose... but certainly worth your time... and the link is here.
Federal Reserve policy, "quantitative easing," is failing, Free Gold Money Report editor and GoldMoney founder James Turk wrote last night... pointing to rising long-term interest rates and commodity prices. Turk's commentary is headlined "Numbers Don't Lie". It's a fairly short read... and very much worth your time. The graph alone is worth the trip. The link is here.
And now for my very long list of precious metals-related stories. And, with the odd exception, I will post them in the order I received them over the last three days. The first story is courtesy of reader Allister Headland... and is from the Sunday edition of The Wall Street Journal. A former skeptic and gold basher has now been converted from the dark side of The Force... and has joined the rebel alliance. Columnist Dave Kansas eats humble pie in an article headlined "Why Dave is Now a Goldbug"... and the link is here.
The next story headlined "The Central Banks Don't Consider It Manipulation; They Consider It Part of Their Job" is imbedded in a GATA release that Chris Powell has entitled "Central banks have rigged gold for decades, Rickards tells interviewer". Western central banks have been surreptitiously manipulating the gold market for 60 years, market analyst James G. Rickards tells the German journalist Lars Schall in a wide-ranging interview published at the ChaosTheorien website. Needless to say, I consider this a must read... and the link is here.
Today's next gold-related offering is a Richard Russell blog that's posted over at the King World News website. It's headlined "Richard Russell: Gold = Biggest Bull Market of Our Lifetimes". This is probably the first, and only time, that I will ever disagree with the "R-Man"... because I think the biggest bull market will be in silver. Richard takes a shot at the 'Tokyo Rose' of the gold world as well. The photo that accompanies this blog is well worth the trip on its own... and the link to 'all of the above' is here.
Russian reader Alex Lvov provides the next item. It's a zerohedge.com posting that's headlined "Chart of the Month: TSX-V Speaks Volumes - Gold Mania Still Ahead". As T.D. states at the end... "the bottom line is that even with the gold price moving sharply higher, the mania remains an anticipated future event." I agree totally. The article is a must read... but clicking on the imbedded graph will not show the whole thing. You'll have to save it to your desktop and look at it that way... but I have posted in below to save you the trouble. The link to the story is here.
Here's a really interesting story that was sent to me late last night by Tokyo reader Markus Ken Moriyama. It's out of Monday's edition of London's Financial Times. The headline reads "Hong Kong gold exchange to launch renminbi gold contract"... "The Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange, Hong Kong’s century-old bullion exchange, plans to launch the first international gold contract denominated in the renminbi in early 2011. The new contract comes as China pushes for greater international use of the currency and as Hong Kong’s precious metals industry seeks to take advantage of booming gold demand on the mainland Haywood Cheung, president of the exchange, said that the new contract could boost trading volumes by 20 per cent." The link to the story is here... and you may have to sign up [for free] to read the whole thing.
Reader Bob Fitzwilson was kind enough to send me another Financial Times story yesterday... and it's headlined "JPMorgan cuts back on US silver futures". The link to that is contained in a GATA release that Chris Powell has headlined "Morgan quietly cuts silver futures position way back, FT reports"... and the link is here.
Well, Tyler Durden... the proprietor over at zerohedge.com... just had to jump all over that FT story... and 'David in California' was only too happy to send it my way, when he did. The longish headline reads "Water, Meet Blood - JP Morgan Admits To, Reduces Massive Silver Short Position, Proves Millions Of Conspiracy Theorists Correct". T.D. cuts right to the chase with this comment... "Attempting to make others believe that this short could be covered without pushing the price of the silver metal to over $100/ounce is an indication of either how stupid JPM believes the general population to be, or just how desperate the firm is to end the ongoing short squeeze onslaught." This is an absolute must read from one end to the other... and the link is here.
My next silver-related offering is courtesy of Washington state reader Bill Moomau. It's a posting over at energyandcapital.com dated last Friday. The headline reads "The Hunt Brothers Corner Silver Market: Will the Internet Take Revenge on JPM?" This is a very interesting trip down memory lane for those of you silver enthusiasts that need to brush up on your silver history a bit. The link is here.
My second-to-last offering is a GATA release that's headlined "Market riggers are feeling the heat, so help GATA turn it up". The extensive preamble by Chris Powell is well worth your time... as are the links he provides. Click here.
Today's last offering is a gold-related interview that showed up on PBS. It's embedded in a GATA release headlined "Charlie Rose interviews Munk, Hathaway, and James Grant on gold". Charlie devoted a half hour to gold last Monday, interviewing Barrick Gold Chairman Peter Munk, Tocqueville Gold Fund manager John Hathaway, and Grant's Interest Rate Observer publisher James Grant. While the program never touched on government manipulation of the gold market, at least all three guests acknowledged gold's immutable function as money... and, as these three are all major figures in the gold universe, they are hardly seen on television individually, let along together... so precious metals investors should be interested in what they have to say. I certainly did. The link is here.
If we want to keep our nation's secrets SECRET, store them where President Obama stores his college transcripts and birth certificate.- Governor Mike Huckabee... concerning WikiLeaks
The caption for the last cartoon [stolen from Jesse's Café Américain] reads "Well, it could be worse. You could be short silver, too."
Monday's volume was pretty light in gold... all things considered... and the same can be said for silver. Open interest in gold for Friday's trading day showed a decline of about 2,200 contracts... and silver o.i. was down about 935 contracts. There are less than 800 contracts open in December... and less than 450 in silver. That's not a lot... and it will be interesting to see if they all stand for delivery or not... or if any more will be added as the month progresses.
I'll be particularly interested in seeing Monday's open interest numbers when they're posted later this morning. I wouldn't be entirely surprised it there's some deterioration... but if JPMorgan et al are starting to cover... then there's a possibility that silver's open interest may decline further.
A week ago today, 'da boyz' absolutely crucified silver on Tuesday, December 7th... the 'day of infamy'. Let's see if they have anything in store for us today... either during New York trading, or in electronic trading starting at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time.
I would not want to be in their shoes at this point in history. As of the cut-off for last week's Commitment of Traders report, these eight bullion banks were short 151 days of world silver production. They have three choices: 1] deliver physical silver into their short positions, 2] buy back their short positions, or 3] default. Which route will they choose? Or will their decision be made for them by the U.S. Treasury and/or the Fed? We'll find out soon enough.
Both silver and gold showed very positive price action during the Far East's Tuesday trading session... and this is continuing through the London open. Gold and silver trading volumes are both pretty light, all things considered. But it's what happens in New York that matters.
I'll leave the last word in this column today to Tyler Durden over at zerohedge.com... who posted this short piece [plus chart] late last night in New York. The headline reads "Silver Spikes Post JP Morgan Short Covering News". I thank Australian reader Wesley Legrand for this story... and the link is here.
That was certainly more than enough for today!
See you tomorrow.