Re: Coach/MexicoMike on ECU in MIDAS tonight
posted on
Dec 21, 2010 04:05PM
''Aquisition by a major would be tragical for investors imo. Just 50% or so profit instead of 500+% in the case of staying independent.''
There is a slight fallacy in the above assumption, imho.
A major would not aquire this company with just a 50% premium above current trading price. The closest that I could possibly see is at least 100%, i.e. at double current price, and even then I have serious doubts.
The other part is the assumption that being independent we would realize 5 times the value in current market situation. I say not likely. Someting has to change to make that possible.
AND if that someting changes then it will most likely affect the price offered by a major.
My point is that there is not likely to be a big difference between the major's price and what we would realize on our own.
Market forces prevail, unfortunately as in now.
The problem that I see with a major is that those who would not sell and obtained the major's shares in exchange ( forced to ) would not be happy because of dillution with the major's assets and liabilities. Most Bills of Rights help little.
Still it would not be a happy camping ground.