Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Jan 19, 2011 11:13AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
U.S. Mint reports selling 4,588,000 silver eagles so far in January. There's No Substitute for Gold as the World Order Changes. States Warned of $2 Trillion Pensions Shortfall....and much more.
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Gold rose quietly all through Far East and early London trading yesterday...and about twenty minutes before the Comex opened, a more substantial rally began that ran into some serious resistance as it approached its 50-day moving average. Gold's high tick of the day [$1,377.40 spot] came about 8:50 a.m. Eastern time...and got sold down pretty quick before slowly declining for the rest of the New York trading session...but finished up about six bucks on the day.
Silver didn't do a lot until around 10:00 a.m. Hong Kong time, when a smallish rally began. This rally picked up a head of steam very shortly after London opened for trading...as silver tacked on another 30 cents in short order and...except for its high price tick [$29.08 spot] at 10:20 a.m. in New York...not much happened to the silver price for the rest of Tuesday's trading day.
The dollar peaked early in the morning in Far East trading on Tuesday...and by 9:30 a.m. in London, the world's reserve currency was down about 75 basis points. It's absolute low [78.66] came shortly before 10:00 a.m. in New York before rallying a bit into the close. But it still closed below 79 cents. For a change, there actually was some co-relation between the dollar and the gold price yesterday.
The gold stocks gapped up...and then hardly changed from the opening bell to the closing bell. The HUI was up 1.52% for the day. Most [but by no means all] of the silver stocks did quite a bit better than that.
Yesterday's CME Delivery Report showed that 59 gold and 66 silver contracts were posted for delivery on Thursday. JPMorgan was basically the only issuer in both metals...and the Bank of Nova Scotia was the big stopper in gold...with Prudential the big stopper in silver. The link to the action is here.
The GLD ETF continued its almost unrelenting decline, shedding another 78,072 ounces yesterday. But, over at the SLV ETF, an eye-watering 4,494,034 troy ounces were withdrawn. That's pretty close to being a one-day record withdrawal from SLV. Considering the price action in the last few days, it's obvious that someone desperately needed the silver they had stored there...and withdrew it. Or they purchased the shares...and immediately withdrew what they just bought...leaving Blackrock with the problem of replacing it.
As astonishing as that SLV withdrawal was...the U.S. Mint had a little surprise for us yesterday as well Their sales report showed that they sold another 12,500 ounces of gold eagles, along with a gargantuan 1,181,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date, the U.S. Mint has sold 75,500 ounces of gold eagles...and 4,588,000 silver eagles. This is a one month record for silver eagles sales...and I've seen full years go by when they didn't sell that many eagles...and 1996 comes to mind when only 3,466,000 were sold in the entire year. Those eagles are selling for a very healthy premium to spot.
Also of note is the gold/silver eagle sales ratio. Silver eagles are outselling gold eagles 367 to 1. My bullion dealer's gold/silver sales ratio is around 1,000 to 1. One has to wonder how much longer it will be before investment demand absolutely buries the '8 or less' traders. I make it an absolute unshakeable rule that I buy some silver bullion every month without fail. Like the headline of my column said yesterday..."Sell gold, buy silver".
It was a busy day over at the Comex-approved depositories. All four warehouses saw action...and by the end of the day on Friday...their collective silver inventories had declined a smallish 46,643 ounces. The link to all the action is here.
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I was hoping that I would have a reasonable number of stories today. That has turned out not to be the case...as I have a lot.
Over at zerohedge.com, they were quick out of the chute with the silver eagle story...and reader 'David in California' was kind enough to share it with us. The headline reads "US Mint Reports January Silver Sales Hit 26 Year High". Besides the silver eagle story, there is a lot of other interesting material in it as well. I just want to remind you one more time that 1,696,000 of those silver eagle sales were reported on January 3rd...the first working day of the year. It's still my opinion that those sales should have been reported in December. The link to the story is here.
This next story is courtesy of reader Scott Pluschau. It's a story from the Financial Times that has been reprinted at cnbc.com. The headline is no surprise to me...and reads "States Warned of $2 Trillion Pensions Shortfall". It's short...and ugly...and the link is here.
The next item for your reading pleasure is courtesy of Casey Research's own Jeff Clark. The headline reads "Brain Drain: Most College Students Learn Next to Nothing, New Study Says". It's a short story that's posted over at finance.yahoo.com, along with a video clip that runs a bit longer than that...and the link is here.
Here's another zerohedge.com story that's courtesy of reader 'David in California'. This one shouldn't come as much surprise, either. The headline reads "Insider Selling To Buying Ratio: DIV/0, As No Insiders Bought Any Stock In Prior Week". According to Bloomberg, in the week ended January 14th, S&P 500 insiders sold $163 million worth of stock in 54 separate transactions. They bought exactly $0. It's a 30-second read...along with a list of the 54 transactions...and the link is here.
For all of you that are students of technical analysis, here's a piece sent to me by reader "Dharma". It's a short article posted over at decision point.com. The headline reads "Bumpiness Is A Message". As author Tom McClellan says..."Taking the Price Oscillator up to a very high level, or down to a very low level, merits a corrective move to get back to neutral. That's what the Price Oscillator decline since October has been about. The fact that the move up was smooth is a message of power for the bulls. The fact that the Price Oscillator's move down is bumpy is a message of weakness and tentativeness for the bears. The conclusion offered by these two messages is that the gold bulls are the ones really in charge, and that we just have to wait for the corrective period to run its course before that power can be observed in a further up move."
I'm not a big fan of trying to do TA on a rigged market like gold and silver. But, having said that, this report and the chart are well worth your time...and the link is here.
Here's a graph of great interest...and importance. Australian reader Wesley Legrand was kind enough to send it along...and it's well worth looking at, as it's another chart that doesn't need any verbal elaboration from anyone. The title says it all..."U.S. National Debt from 1940 to Present". The year 1971 is pretty easy to pick out...as that was the year that Nixon pulled the pin on the gold standard.
Here are a couple of stories that I pilfered from yesterday's King Report. Both have to do with inflation in Britain...and, by extension, every nation on earth. The first is from The Telegraph...and is headlined "Inflation picks up at British factories". The costs of raw materials at British factories rose at the fastest rate in eight months in December, posing a headache for policymakers tasked with keeping inflation under control. James Turk has a 'red alert' flag out for hyperinflation in Britain as well. The link to the story is here.
The second story on British inflation comes out of the Sunday edition of The Guardian...and the headline reads "Inflation, the old enemy, is back. But this is no time to be frightened"..."Tuesday will bring more gloomy economic news in the wake of rising petrol, energy and food prices. The Bank of England will be under pressure to act to curb inflation; but some believe inaction will be the most courageous choice of all." That means that the Bank of England will have to print money until the presses melt down. It's a longish story...but its a look into everyone's future...and the link is here.
The rest of today's stories are pretty much all gold related. But before I start, here's a graph that Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com sent out last night. And, as it should, the graph looks suspiciously like the U.S. debt chart posted above. This one is entitled "Cumulative Value of Global Gold Production"...and, once again, the title says it all.
The first story is one I lifted from a gata.org release yesterday. MineWeb's Lawrence Williams reviewed the international currency and commodity wars...and concludes that gold is the most likely winner for the long term...as he states "The currency debate is just another element in the rapidly changing global economic power battle, but of all commodities, gold is likely to be the most consistent beneficiary." His commentary is headlined "There's No Substitute for Gold as the World Order Changes"...and the link to the story [which is well worth the read] is here.
The next gold-related story is courtesy of reader Thomas Wilkins and appeared in yesterday's edition of the Financial Times out of London. It's headlined "Brace for a ‘perfect storm’ in gold". Asset managers and central banks are just beginning to re-admit gold back into the select group of prudent asset classes. That this is occurring at a time when what might be seen as the world’s safest financial asset classes may also be its scarcest, suggests interesting times ahead for those who own gold." I'm more than impressed to see such a pro-gold story show up in such an anti-gold newspaper. It's worth your time...and the story is printed in the clear in this GATA release which is linked here.
My last gold-related story is another GATA release with the headline "Alasdair Macleod: The failure of derivatives regulation of precious metals". Alasdair says that the paper shorts will be destroyed "as metal shortages explode the price suppression scheme...and there will be serious consequences to the world financial system." This is worth running through as well...and the link is here.
Lastly today are two links that were sent to me by Australian reader Wesley Legrand that show the devastation from the flooding that has occurred in Brisbane over the last week. As you run your cursor over each photo, you go from the picture of what it looked like before the flooding...to the one where the floodwaters have inundated the area. The photo essays are headlined "Brisbane floods: before and after". The photos are posted over at abc.net.au. Part One is linked here...and Part Two is linked here. It's not a pretty sight.
The CME's preliminary figures for Monday and Tuesday's trading days shows that volume wasn't particularly heavy...considering that there are two days worth of trading shown. However, the volume traded on Monday was tiny [about 15% of the total]...which proves that the major trading volume is done by the U.S.-based bullion banks on the Globex trading system...regardless of what time of day it is...or what part of the world they are located in.
As I expected, the open interest changes reported for Friday's trading didn't reveal very much...as both gold and silver showed increases in open interest, despite the fact that gold was down on the day...and silver set a new low for this move down. Ted Butler pointed out that 'the raptors' [all the Commercial traders except the '8 or less'] may have been buying the dip. This would certainly increase the open interest...but we won't know if it was them or not until Friday's Commitment of Traders report.
I note that the price action in both gold and silver was on the positive side all through Far East trading earlier today...but at the precise moment that London opened at 3:00 a.m. Eastern time, both metals ran into a not-for-profit seller. At it's spike high at precisely 3:00 a.m...silver was up a $1.40+ from its Monday low. We'll find out pretty quick if Monday's low at the London a.m. gold fix was the real deal or not. I'm just happy to have added to my physical silver stash on that day.
Volume, as of 4:55 a.m. Eastern, is pretty light in gold...but very large in silver. Gold volume is around 18,100 contracts net of all roll-overs...and silver's volume is gargantuan in comparison at 11,600 contracts net. None of this activity will be in Friday's COT report, because the cut-off was yesterday.
However, as per usual, I expect the real action in both metals to occur during the New York trading day. It was in both metals yesterday...although it's not that obvious in silver, unless you saw the New York spot silver chart.
That's all for today...and I'll see you tomorrow.