Ed Steer this morning
posted on
Feb 08, 2011 09:40AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
U.S. Mint sells another 711,500 silver eagles. China's 2010 gold output at record 340.88 tonnes. China Silver imports hit record 3,500 tons in 2010. Sprott Warns of Physical Gold Shortage...and much, much more.
There wasn't much action in the gold price yesterday and, considering the volume [which was unbelievably light], I'm not entirely surprised. I wouldn't read a thing into this price action...except that the New York low spot price was at the London p.m. gold fix at 10:00 a.m. Eastern...3:00 p.m. GMT in London.
But what really stands out, now that the scale on the graph has changed, is the big smack-down in gold on Friday. It didn't look too big on Friday, but looms mightily on the chart now.
Silver is only slightly more interesting in the fact that there was a bit of a price spike between 10:45 and 11:00 a.m. in New York...which got sold back down. The New York low was at the London p.m. gold fix as well. Note Friday's similar spike in price, which got dealt with in the usual manner.
The world's reserve currency spent most of Monday within 25 basis points of its opening price in the Far East. The one rally of consequence began shortly before 9:00 a.m. in London...and hit its zenith precisely at the London p.m. gold fix...which was a few minutes before 10:00 a.m. in New York...3:00 p.m. in London...gold and silver's exact low ticks in New York.
Coincidence? Not bloody likely.
Of course, it nearly goes without saying that the gold stocks bottomed at the London p.m. gold fix...which were the lows for gold and silver...and the high for the U.S. dollar. The subsequent smallish rally in the gold price took the HUI up a bit over one percent...but those gains disappeared by the end of the New York trading day...and the HUI finished basically unchanged.
As I mentioned in my Saturday column, the CME did not update their Daily Delivery Report on Friday...and didn't get around to it until Monday. That delivery report showed that 70 gold and 12 silver contracts were posted for delivery today.
Monday's Daily delivery report from the CME showed that 448 gold and 1 [one] silver contract were posted for delivery tomorrow. Month-to-date there have been 10,097 gold contracts posted for delivery...and only 204 silver contracts. Yesterday's report is linked here.
Neither GLD nor SLV had a report yesterday.
But over at Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank [for the week that was] they reported that their gold ETF declined a rather large 46,410 troy ounces. Their silver ETF rose a smallish 121,498 troy ounces. As always, I thank Carl Loeb for those numbers.
The U.S. Mint had some silver eagle sales on Monday. They reported selling another 711,500 of them...bringing the month-to-date total up to 838,000. They reported no gold eagles sales...and for February the total figure stands at 13,500 ounces sold.
For a change, the Comex-approved depositories showed an increase. On Friday they received 1,164,723 troy ounces of silver...and shipped out 212,981...for a net increase of 1,007,369 ounces of the stuff. The link to the action is here.
Before I post the stories I have for you today, here's a graph that was sent to me by reader Peter Corlis. In his covering e-mail, Pete had this to say..."Here's an interesting chart of the Commodities Price Index (CRB) vs. Baltic Dry index (BDI) to knock some sense into anyone who still thinks that rising commodity prices are demand related. Note the clear disconnect around the middle of 2010 just before the start of QE2."
One has to wonder what this Baltic Dry Index would look like plotted against the old CRB...the Continuous Commodity Index, or CCI...as it is at new record highs...whereas the old CRB is nowhere near new highs.
While on the subject of commodity graphs...here's one that reader U.D. sent around last night. This is the chart of Commodity price increases over the last 12 months...as of Feb. 1, 2011. Just remember that the government says that there is no price inflation. There is no food stuff that is not up double digits on this entire chart. It's worth of a moment of your time.
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My first offering for you today is this inflation-related piece from the Saturday edition of The Telegraph that I found posted as a GATA release. The headline pretty much says it all..."Bank of England Attempting Inflation 'Confidence Trick,' Says Former MPC Member Kate Barker". Keeping inflation under control is a "confidence trick" that the Bank of England may fail to pull off, Kate Barker, one of its former rate-setters, has warned. This is exactly the same parlor trick that Bernanke and Co. are trying to pull off as well. It's the 21st century version of selling snake oil out of the back of a covered wagon. It's worth the read...and the link is here.
The next item is one of many stories provided by reader Roy Stephens today. This piece is also from The Telegraph...this one from the Sunday edition. This is an unusual subject for Ambrose Evans-Pritchard to write about...but its importance is critical for just about all life on earth...and I've posted several stories about this issue over the years. Being a farm boy from way back...I can say that this is 100% food/commodity related...and the headline reads "Einstein was right - honey bee collapse threatens global food security". The bee crisis has been treated as a niche concern until now, but as the UN's index of food prices hits an all time-high, it is becoming urgent to know whether the plight of the honey bee risks further exhausting our food security. This is a must read from one end to the other...and the link is here.
Roy's next reading material is a UPI posting from London that's headlined "Walker's World: Europe Fails Again". France and Germany sought to give some much-needed and sensible leadership to their European partners at Friday's summit but found themselves short of followers. This is a rather short piece for UPI Editor Emeritus Martin Walker...and if you have the time, it's worth the read...and the link is here.
First it was Algeria, then Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen...and now Serbia. Here's a story posted over at the france24.com website that Roy sent me on Sunday. The headline reads "Protesters flood the streets of Belgrade calling for early elections". Tens of thousands of protesters hit the streets of Belgrade Saturday calling for political reform and threatening further demonstrations if early elections are not held ahead of a scheduled May 2012 parliamentary vote. The link to the story is here.
My last three stories before I get into the precious metal offerings, are all about Egypt...and all from Roy Stephens. The first one is from the Sunday edition of The New York Times. The headline reads "As Mubarak Digs In, U.S. Policy in Egypt Is Complicated". Like most Arab countries, Egypt is totally under the thumb of the American Empire...and I'm sure that the U.S. is making every attempt to have this revolution turn out for their benefit. It's a longish read...but I found it to be worthwhile. The link is here.
The next story about Egypt was this Reuters piece posted over at the france24.com website. This one is headlined "Egypt's opposition wary after historic talks to solve crisis". The United States, which had bankrolled Mubarak and the army to the tune of $1.3 billion a year, has backed the talks, but said dialogue must be given time. Washington and its allies were caught by surprise by the uprising against Mubarak's government, whom they saw as a bastion against Islamic militancy and a friend, albeit a reluctant one, of Israel. In my opinion, this is also worth your time...and the link is here.
The last Egypt-related story is from the German website spiegel.de. The headline reads "The Fragile Dream: Egypt's Fight for Freedom". The Egyptian revolution is fragile, and it isn't yet clear where it will lead. Still, it does provide reason for hope: Those reaching for power are not bearded old men, but young people who yearn for democracy. They have impressed the world, inspired their neighbors and forced the West to allow an old ally to fall. This is a very long read...but all in-depth articles are that way...and the link is here.
The first gold-related story I have for you today is one that I dug out of a GATA release yesterday. It's from the Saturday edition of the Austin American-Statesman...and is headlined "Meet the rational gold investor, a rare bird". This one is named Shayne McGuire. He manages gold investments for the Texas Teacher Retirement Fund. Although the amount of money is large, he is quick to put it in perspective: It is less than 0.5 percent of the roughly $100 billion fund. Even so, it's more than most pension and endowment funds anywhere in the world have committed to the precious metal.
This is the third gold-related story involving Shayne McGuire that I've posted in this column during the last year or so. And, as usual, Shayne calls it the way it is...and the link to the story is here.
Next is a story that is a Reuters piece from Saturday that was posted over at the Indian website economictimes.com. The headline reads "China's 2010 gold output at record 340.88 tonnes". The figure confirmed an earlier forecast by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that China was on course to produce more than 340 tonnes of gold in 2010. It's a short story that's courtesy of reader Bob Fitzwilson...and the link is here.
Reader 'Jeff in Switzerland' was kind enough to forward the following Bloomberg story from yesterday that's headlined "Investors Have $102 Billion Bet on Gold, Silver Gains". After the worst January for precious metals in two decades, investors still have a $102 billion bet on higher prices, hoarding more gold than all but four central banks and more silver than the U.S. can mine in almost 12 years. The link is here.
Here's a silver-related story that courtesy of California reader Ray Wiberg. It was filed from Beijing yesterday...and posted over at the commodityonline.com website. The headline reads "China Silver imports hit record 3,500 tons in 2010". It's certainly worth the read...and the link is here.
The next story is one that was all over the Internet yesterday...and I'm posting the GATA release on it. Chris Powell's headline reads "Morgan will take gold pledged against any crappy paper"...and he continues with the comment "Good luck getting it back." They'll only take bullion in its physical form that's deposited in their vaults...not any 'paper gold'...not even GLD shares. It's a Reuters piece that they headline "JPMorgan Will Take Gold as Collateral with Inflation in Focus"...and the link is here.
If you've got about fourty minutes to spare just now, your humble scribe was interviewed on Sunday by Dr. Dave Janda over at WAAM Talk 1600 out of Ann Arbor, Michigan. We spent almost the entire show talking about silver and gold. The link to the interview is here.
Here's a blog that was sent my way by Eric King over at King World News yesterday. Although it's a fascinating read, I must warn you in advance that it's all hearsay and speculation at this point...so please read it with that firmly in mind. If it turns out to be true, then you can let your imagination run wild. The headline reads "KWN Source - Expect Massive Chinese Gold Buying Using GLD"...and the link is here.
Here's Roy Stephens last offering of the day. It's a commentary from yesterday that's posted over at Canada's Business News Network that's headlined "Sprott Warns of Physical Gold Shortage". The video clip runs 3:22...and is a must watch...and the link is here.
As the last story states, Eric Sprott said exactly that..."We believe Asian demand for physical gold and silver is akin to a tsunami. While precious metals prices have corrected on the paper exchanges, the inflation resurgence in Asia is quietly driving new, unforeseen levels of physical demand for the metals. While the world continues to float on a sea of paper, this massive wave of physical demand silently threatens to crash into the physical gold and silver market, potentially wiping out tangible supply." All of this is contained in the latest "Markets at a Glance" commentary, which is written monthly by Eric Sprott and David Franklin.
I had the good fortune to sit beside David at dinner one night when I was at the gold show a couple of weeks ago in Vancouver...and it was an education. I also spent some quality time with Eric as well. I'd love to be able to tell you all that we discussed, but I can't. However, you'll get the drift of it from their latest commentary which is headlined "Gold Tsunami". For whatever reason, it's still not posted at Sprott's website...but Australian reader Wesley Legrand sent me the posting from zerohedge.com...and that link is here. It's a must read.
As I mentioned at the beginning, volume in gold was very light on Monday. The CME's preliminary numbers show that gold traded just over 80,000 contracts net of roll-overs yesterday...which is almost nothing at all relatively speaking. Silver, on the other hand, traded just under 50,000 net contracts. This is the highest gold/silver volume ratio I have ever seen. Normally gold volume is several orders of magnitude larger than silver volume...but not yesterday...and we've had quite a few days like that recently.
Just looking at the preliminary open interest numbers from Monday's trading day, I'm guessing that we'll see a drop in open interest in both silver and gold when the CME posts the final numbers later this morning.
Friday's changes in open interest showed a drop of 470 contracts in gold, which is basically nothing in the grand scheme of things. On the other hand, silver's o.i. rose 1,559 contracts, which Ted Butler felt might have been spread related...and we won't know for sure until Friday's Commitment of Traders report.
Silver analyst Ted Butler had a very interesting graph in his weekly review that he published over the weekend. It's the silver/gold ratio going back thirty years...and it's a sight to behold. This is what Ted had to say about it. "Once again, I ask you to step back from thinking about the gold/silver ratio itself [even though I just brought it up], and instead focus on the what the tightening ratio means in practical terms. What it means is this -- anyone who switched from gold to silver at almost any point over the past 28 years would have been better off [made more money] for having done so. And, considering recent developments, I believe that a switch from gold to silver continues to make sense."
Ted also addressed the silver backwardation issue with the following comments..."Now there are signs emerging that silver may be moving into a backwardation price structure on the Comex. It's not a pronounced backwardation pattern just yet...and it may prove to be temporary in nature, but it is notable, particularly when compared to the pricing pattern in gold. In any event, it is not a pricing pattern in silver that I've ever observed before...and I thought it important enough to bring to your attention."
"This is especially relevant since there are separate supporting factors suggesting the physical silver market is tight...and tightening. I've written recently about the Comex silver spreads tightening, with the nearby months gaining relative to the back months. This has continued, to the extent that there is now a slight premium [but a premium nonetheless] on the July 2011 contract...and all successive Comex deliveries. While the most actively traded months of March and May have picked up relative price strength to all other months recently, they are still at a discount to July."
Neither gold or silver did much in early Far East trading on Tuesday...but popped up a bit just before London opened earlier this morning. As of this writing [4:33 a.m. Eastern] gold is up $4.20...and silver is up 25 cents. The dollar, which has fallen about 50 basis points from the London p.m. gold fix yesterday, is still in decline...but the jump in prices in late Hong Kong trading had nothing to do with the dollar. Volume in gold is still incredibly light, even now that London is open...and sits around 12,000 contracts net of all roll-overs. Silver's net volume is around 5,700 contracts. It's very encouraging to see this sort of price action on such light volume. I also note that the gold/silver volume ratio is sky-high once again.
Although it's tempting to read something into this early price action, we all know it can end when the New York bullion banks begin trading on the Comex at 8:20 a.m. Eastern time...so I await the New York trading day with great interest.
See you on Wednesday.