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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Soros Raises Gold Holding 0.5% in Fourth Quarter

Possibility of Gold Breaking to New Highs: Richard Russell. U.S. Mint's gold eagle sales continue to surge. Interviews with Eric Sprott and Hugo Salinas Price...and much more.

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The pop in the gold price just before the London open yesterday morning was pretty much all the excitement there was on Tuesday. Gold made a brief rally attempt at the Comex open at 8:20 a.m. Eastern...but that was pretty much it for the day. Gold's high price tick was $1,377.90 spot which occurred 8:30 a.m. in New York.

The silver spiked up a bit the same time as gold...and from there, silver worked itself slowly higher. The high tick was shortly before lunch in London...which was close to the London silver fix. But, from that high, the silver price came under selling pressure after every rally attempt...and silver finished up less than 20 cents from its Monday close.

The dollar swung within a 25 basis point range, both up and down, from its open on Tuesday morning in the Far East...and finished down 10 basis points on the day. For the second day running, there was no co-relation between the precious metals and the world's reserve currency that I could see.

The gold stocks gapped higher once again...and stayed up for the rest of the New York trading session...with the HUI finishing up 1.86% on the day. Most silver stocks had a good showing as well.

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 62 gold along with only 1 silver contract were posted for delivery tomorrow. It was all 'da boyz' in gold...and the link to the action is here.

The GLD ETF showed another decline. This time it was 48,780 ounces. There were no reported changes in SLV.

Over at Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank for the week that was, they reported a 32,339 troy ounce decline in their gold ETF, but over at their silver ETF, they increased their holdings by 296,173 ounces. As always, I thank reader Carl Loeb for those numbers.

The U.S. Mint reported that they sold another 13,500 ounces of gold eagles yesterday...but nothing in silver eagles. Month-to-date...55,500 ounces of gold eagles have been sold...along with 1,705,500 silver eagles.

There was almost no activity over at the Comex-approved depositories on Monday. They received a smallish 74,519 ounces of silver.

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¤ Critical Reads

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UK Inflation Surges to 4%, Highest Since Nov. 2008

There were a couple of inflation-related stories out of the U.K. yesterday. The first is a cnbc.com piece that was sent to me by reader Scott Pluschau early on Tuesday morning. The headline there reads "UK Inflation Surges to 4%, Highest Since Nov. 2008". British consumer price inflation surged to double the Bank of England's target in January, official data showed on Tuesday, raising pressure on the central bank to look seriously at increasing interest rates. The link is here.

Interest rates to rise, Mervyn King hints

Then late yesterday evening, Roy Stephens sent me a story on the U.K.'s inflation problem that was published late last night in The Telegraph. The headline reads "Interest rates to rise, Mervyn King hints". Mervyn King, the Bank of England’s governor, has given his clearest signal yet that rates could hit 1.25 per cent by the year end, as he warned that inflation could cause serious problems for families over the next three years. I'll be amazed if he raises rates by very much in the light of the other serious problems that the British economy has. The link is here.

China Inflation Data Today Cuts Food Weighting, Newspaper Says

Today's next inflation-related story is courtesy of yesterday's King Report. It's a Bloomberg offering that's headlined "China Inflation Data Today Cuts Food Weighting, Newspaper Says". It looks like China has at least one U.S. import...and that's ability to fix its inflation numbers so that everything is not as bad as it seems. Without doubt, they learned all about it from the BLS...and the link to the story is here.

From Prison, Madoff Says Banks ‘Had to Know’ of Fraud'

Reader Phil Barlett provides the next item, which is from yesterday's edition of The New York Times. It's an interview with Bernie Madoff that's headlined "From Prison, Madoff Says Banks ‘Had to Know’ of Fraud". It's a rather longish story, but I found it to be a fascinating read...and the link is here.

Wall Street's Dead End

The next piece is also from The New York Times...and is another story that I stole from yesterday's King Report. The headline of this op-ed piece reads "Wall Street's Dead End". The author says..."In truth, the stock market is becoming increasingly irrelevant — a trend that threatens the core principles of American capitalism."

"These days a healthy stock market doesn’t mean a healthy economy, as a glance at the high unemployment rate or the low labor-market participation rate will show. The Tea Party is right about one thing: What’s good for Wall Street isn’t necessarily good for Main Street. And the Germans aren’t buying the New York Stock Exchange for its commoditized, highly competitive and ultra-low-margin stock business, but rather for its lucrative derivatives operations."

The link to the story is here.

Iranian police fire tear gas into protesters as unrest spreads across Middle East

Today's next reading material is from The Telegraph and is courtesy of Roy Stephens once again. The headline here reads "Iranian police fire tear gas into protesters as unrest spreads across Middle East". Thousands of people marching illegally through Iran were targeted by police firing tear gas on Monday as the wave of Middle East revolution continued to spread beyond Egypt and Tunisia. The link to the story is here.

Gold Sees First Major Outflow in Over a Year

My first gold-related story today is a short piece imbedded in yesterday's Casey's Daily Dispatch. If you scroll down a bit, you'll come to a story headlined "Gold Sees First Major Outflow in Over a Year". It's a handful of short paragraphs and a couple of charts...all of which are worth your time...and the link is here.

Your Pension-Pot Warranty

The next item that's also worth your time is this piece from Amsterdam reader Ronald Langereis. Last week I ran a story about a Dutch pension fund that is being forced to sell part of its gold position. The appeal against the Dutch National Bank, that's being launched by the pension fund, is still pending...so it all may come to naught. But here's a story about it from Adrian Ash over at the bullionvault.com. It's headlined "Your Pension-Pot Warranty"...and it's worth running through...and the link is here.

Soros Raises SPDR Gold Holding 0.5% in Fourth Quarter

Reader Scott Pluschau was kind enough to share the following Bloomberg item with us. It bears the headline "Soros Raises SPDR Gold Holding 0.5% in Fourth Quarter". It looks like these guys have been buying up gold and silver company shares left and right..and there's a list of them in this story. This is worth the read...and the link is here.

Richard Russell - Possibility of Gold Breaking to New Highs

Eric King over at King World News sent me a Richard Russell blog in the wee hours of yesterday morning...but because my Tuesday column was already overflowing with stories...I passed on it until now. This one is titled "Richard Russell - Possibility of Gold Breaking to New Highs"...and the link is here.

Australia Blocked Rare Earth Deal on Supply Fears

Australian reader Wesley Legrand sent me the following piece about rare earths in Australia. It's a Bloomberg piece filed over at businessweek.com that's headlined "Australia Blocked Rare Earth Deal on Supply Fears". China’s bid to gain control of the world’s richest rare earth deposit in 2009 was blocked by Australia’s Foreign Investment Review Board on concern it would threaten supply to non-Chinese buyers. This is worth skimming...and the link is here.

London Source - Asians Buying SLV to Take Delivery of Silver

In another blog over at King World News yesterday, it's reported that there is an Asian interest in liquidating shares of the silver exchange-traded fund SLV to obtain dwindling supplies of real metal. Once again KWN uses an un-named London source for this blog...so I would suggest that this piece be taken with a grain of salt. It's entitled "London Source - Asians Buying SLV to Take Delivery of Silver"...and the link is here.

Metals Demand in India May Double on Transport, Power Projects

Here's a Bloomberg piece that was filed from Mumbai earlier today. It bears the headline "Metals Demand in India May Double on Transport, Power Projects". Metals demand in India, Asia’s second-fastest growing major economy, may double in five years and remain robust for a decade, fueled by rising car sales and higher spending on infrastructure projects, analysts said. I thank Australia's Nick Laird for this story...and the link is here.

James Turk interviews Hugo Salinas Price

GoldMoney founder James Turk interviews Hugo Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, about silver's potential to return as money and about sound money generally in a 22-minute video you can find posted at the GoldMoney Internet site here.

Interview With Eric Sprott

Lastly today is this Interview With Eric Sprott, the CEO of Sprott Asset Management in Toronto. It's conducted by Dr. Dave Janda over at WAAM 1600 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Eric was on Dave's Operation Freedom show on Sunday. If the length of my show on that station is any indication, this interview should run about 30 minutes in length...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

¤ The Wrap

If you are interested in Gold, and in particular in its role as money, you will be aware that the primary POLITICAL reason why Gold should be used as money is that it cannot be printed or borrowed into existence. The point is that it is only the political control over what the world uses as money which prevents gold from resuming its function of money on an OFFICIAL basis. On an "unofficial" basis, Gold has never stopped being money.- Bill Buckler, The Privateer, February 12, 2011

Both silver and gold didn't do much yesterday, but looking at the charts of each, I would guess that there was a seller about that made sure that that was the case. The volume's in both metals were slightly higher than they were on Monday, but not by much.

I was not impressed with the preliminary open interest number in gold...and I'm expecting to see an increase in gold's open interest when the final figures are posted on the CME's website later this morning. Silver's open interest numbers look more encouraging...and they even might show a reasonable decline. We'll see. But, whatever they are, they will be in Friday's Commitment of Traders Report...as yesterday [at the close of trading] was the cut-off for that report.

Monday's open interest changes were, unfortunately, just about as I expected. Gold open interest rose 4,379 contracts...and silver's o.i. was up a very chunky 4,945 contracts. There were decent rallies in both metals on Monday...especially in silver...and it's obvious to me that both rallies ran into sellers that were more than willing to go short the metal against all long contract buyers. The bullion banks come to mind, but that won't be known for sure until Friday's COT report.

Here's the 1-year silver chart. As you can see, the RSI is heading back into overbought territory once again...and on increasing open interest...which I'm never happy to see.

I also note that we're within a dollar of the old high that was set back on January 1st. It will be of interest to see what happens for the rest of the trading week...and month...as we're coming up hard on March delivery for silver...and open interest in the March contract is pretty high at the moment.

So, I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if JPMorgan et al weren't tempted to go after the silver price going into First Day Notice, which is the last trading of February. I'm sure they'd like to ring the cash register and harvest all these new longs that have piled in since late January. But can they...or will they?

Gold just broke through its 50-day moving average to the upside yesterday...but probably didn't penetrate it enough to bring in serious technical fund buying...but the preliminary open interest numbers didn't make for happy reading, so who knows. As silver analyst Ted Butler has pointed out, a break through this moving average may set off a rally in both metals once the tech funds step up to the plate in gold.

So, whatever happens in gold and silver for the rest of February, we should all be psychologically ready for it. The gold stocks have been outperforming the metal during the first two days of the week...and we should find out soon enough if these buyers know something that we don't. Here's the 1-year gold graph...and the RSI is a long way from overbought territory here.

Both gold and silver didn't do much in the early going in the Far East earlier today...but began to rally a bit going into the London open...and are still trending higher as of 4:19 a.m. Eastern time.

Today's trading action in New York might prove interesting.

See you on Thursday.

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