Well the bounce is holding so far with London and hopefully that 'failed raid' will not return today, but you never know.

The really funny thing for me is that a rumor that Gaddafi had been shot somehow caused a panic that send commodity prices downwards??? All this tells me is that the average American has no clue about Middle Eastern politics or the situation we face.

As I stated unequivocally in my last post, Gaddafi will never step down or fade out. He will stand until dead. If however, someone (however unlikely) shot him... it changes NOTHING about the situation. Libya is excessively tribal and there is no infrastructure in the country to lead it forward peacefully. In fact, thanks to Gaddafi, the tribals people who lacked weapons, now have them. The army that Gaddafi has was weak and ineffectual, it's his private brigades and Chadian/Sudanese/Niger mercenaries paid with oil money who are heavily armed and totally unafraid to fight Arabs (one might say they were actually motivated by the prospect). If and when Gaddafi dies, there will be no immediate peaceful transition as there was in Tunisia or Egypt... there will be a massive power vacuum. There will be retribution against the secret police, there will be chaos and violence.

The only way for this not to happen is a western lead invasion force, which I am sure is being mulled. Besides... how cool... we can get our hands on tonnes of oil supply (like Iraq) without having to make up stories as to why we would invade, nor face an organized massive resistance (there are 5 million Libyans only and most would be afraid to oppose an invading force.) The Pentagon and Chicken Hawks must be salivating at the prospect.

The fact is that Libyas oil supply will be interrupted for a long period if this doesn't happen, and it will be hijacked if it does. Either way oil investors should expect high prices. The Saudi's are full of BS... they barely hold power there themselves and are now reduced to offering more money to their people in order to preempt any revolutions there. If Saudi starts to teeter... holy man watch the oil price skyrocket and the 'peak oil' scenario move fast forward. Scary times, if exciting for previously brutalized people.

I bought more physical today and will do so again as long as this stays below 35- I see a real need to think 'safe haven' in these troubling times. This has not ended by any means and will not end by such an event as Gaddafis execution. Watch these dips and buy- take advantage of the ignorance of American traders in regards to world affairs... make money on their stupidity and naivety. I will.

This should highlight to all why subjects like this (current events) are NOT OT. You need to read the tea leaves of international affairs in order to understand your opportunities.

Meanderings about the CIA and their actions in the past however probably are OT... and from some of the conversations I saw, rather silly anyhow.

I think investment wise we have a very good few months ahead, but it will come at a real cost for some of our fellow human beings... so mixed feelings here.

Over and out

Soul