Just wanted to comment on some of the points discussed lately on the thread:

The 'rumors' that are floated are just an excuse to explain the violent manipulative tactics that are so much a part of the markets. Crooks will slam the metals with an avalanche of sell orders that trigger a massive selloff, taking out stop losses and chasing specs to the sidelines. Then an excuse is needed to explain this kind of washout, so they make up some rumor and that is that. They could just as easily say that green men had landed from mars. It doesnt matter. It was an orchestrated raid and the majority of selling was entirely related to that raid. I would surmise that very few (if any) traders heard anything about Ghaddafi or were reacting to that nonsense.

The idea that ECU or any other liquid stock can be shorted ahead of a takeover is not very realistic. See, to short the hell out of a stock ahead of a major news item like a hostile takeover is suicide because specs pile on and drive up the share price on such news. Therefore shorts would be trapped and have to pay a much higher price to close out a position. And just assume you were short 2 million shares to accomplish a major selloff. To achieve success in a hostile bid one would have to cover those 2 million shares, and then buy another 200 million shares or so in the market to get voting control of the shares. It just would not happen. Sure you could drive the share price down a chunk before hand, but you would be chasing it higher all the way up thereafter and end up paying a premium anyway. It is much more likely if someone is going to attempt a bargain takeover they can accumulate 10% of the float by buying quietly and strategically before announcing their intentions. And even so, they would have to offer a price high enough to trigger existing shareholders to tender to their bid. And the existing shorts on record would also be scrambling to cover and driving up the share price.

My explanation for the weakness this week was strictly related to the COMEX op-ex window. I suspect that if one were to call up a long term chart and identify the op-ex each month, they would see the same old pattern of ECU tanking ahead of that and rebounding shortly after. This kind of pattern will attract shorts that will cover on the lows, and not show up in the weekly short report. Its easy money for those that play that trade.

I am skeptical that JPM is paying a huge premium to settle contracts. There is still a reported silver inventory in the COMEX warehouse. IF that were completely depleted it is more likely that a premium would be paid to existing metal owners that are also storing their bullion in the warehouses, so that bullion would then become available to deliver. And even if a premium were to be paid at any point along the way, it would come late in the month when the inventories were thin, not before the first notice day. So to my mind such talk is just more rumors. However it makes sense that JPM is paying up to close out shorts they already laid down earlier in the cycle, and thus close out open interest and reduce the settlement obligation. IF one were short at $20 silver and then went into the market to buy contracts and settle shorts at $32 silver then you can see a 'premium' paid to retire those shorts. The real question is how JPM can lose money on a large scale with a huge outstanding short month after month, and yet not report a huge loss on their quarterly numbers. WTF are the regulators?

I bought more traders on the cheap yesterday and plan to continue my strategy of trading the volatility while I wait for ECU to get more sustained price moves higher. I think it is coming soon when a drill is actually going to test the MS zone to depth and for sure that merits a much higher spec interest in this stock. The market appears disinterested in the fate of the company to produce just a million or two ounces of silver and earn a modest profit. It is a major addition to the resource that will prompt a much higher valuation, IMO. I remain optimistic that is coming.

cheers!

mike