Re: Market Bias
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 01, 2011 01:00PM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
I would agree that the potential upside for all of the quality junior mining stocks is very strong. However I would have made the same statement in 2008, right before I lost a million bucks and almost was wiped out. I am a millionaire again today, partly because I rounded up every penny I could find and bought the dips on so many of the juniors that were deep in bargain territory.
My hard lessons learned over the years have assisted me to make money, and one of those lessons is that I must be willing to trade along the way. Put aside a core holding of the stocks you think you can get rich on, but then buy extra shares on the dips, and do not be afraid to book profits on the price spikes. Volatility is a fact of life and most people dread it, but it is your friend. I was buying heavily last summer and had some anxious moments as the juniors seemed on the verge of rolling over into another collapse. Now I can take profits on stocks like GPR, EDR, FR, and IPT today when they seem to gallop another 5% higher a day.
My rule of thumb is if I regret the action before I undertake it, then it is probably the right move. I know buying the dips is scary and I often worry I have gone out on thin ice to buy stocks when the market depth is bearish, the commentary and sentiment stinks, and the shares are in freefall. It is amazing how quickly things turn around and I suddenly wish I had bought more. Similarly I regret selling some of my fav juniors on a day like today when I wonder if we are ready to sustain major breakout moves. I will probably have a great opportunity to sort through some bargains shortly as the stocks take a break, and all the technical bozos flood the bandwidth with the usual bearish doom scenarios.
My point is that one can have the cake and eat it too. I think locking away shares in all good juniors like ECU is a good idea. But there is no reason not to add a few bonus shares on the dips and then take some profits on the upticks. Wash, rinse, repeat... This is not advice and each person must choose their own comfort zone. How many people were able to hold all of their juniors from the highs through the lows of the meltdown in 2008? Who can say we do not have another such episode on the way?
I have been happy to trim some of my multi-bagger winners lately and buy some of the laggards like ECU. When the big winners roll over and take a breather I will be buying them back at a discount. I was pissed off with the market action in ECU yesterday but I did manage to buy a couple thousand more shares @ $1.08 and will sell them when the stock makes the next run at $1.20 or so. If silver continues to rise I do not think ECU will remain adrift much longer.
cheers!
mike