GATA regular Dave In Denver does a good job of looking behind the Curtain Of Oz to reveal the real truth in the economic data. No doubt this headline drivel is an excuse contributing to rocket up the DOW today. On the eve of another infamous jobs report Friday, the cartoon below best sums up reality within the Bureau of Labour and Statistics.

Cheers - VHF

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Some General Analytic Commentary - Today's Jobless Claims Number Was...

Dave In Denver

March 3, 2011

Total B.S. Today's jobless claims report from the Dept of Labor is being celebrated all over the media and by perma-bull idiots as proof the labor market is recovering. But let's look at the details, shall we? Please keep in mind that the headline number is a "seasonally adjusted" mathematic manipulation, the calculation of which no one outside of the DOL can figure out. The headline number reported 368k claims, a decline of 20k from the previous week. But let's look at what is really going on. Has anyone bothered to look at the "extended benefits" number. The extended program moves people from the weekly claims program to a program which enables jobless claimees to file for up to an additional 52 weeks, with a total of 104 weeks available. The details are LINK

The golden truth is that the number of people filing extended benefits increased to 850,372 - or an increase of 88,689 from the previous week. In effect, the number of total jobless claims actually increased by 68,689, the difference between weekly and extended. But in true Orwellian fashion the Government and media only report the weekly number in the headline and anyone paying attention to local news - print and television - will only hear about the headline number and worry that everyone else, other than themselves, is finding good jobs. Feel better now? Here's the report if you need to verify my math: LINK (there's actually several thousand additional claims in other categories but I'm too lazy to do the math).

The housing market. Yesterday the Mortgage Bankers Association reported its weekly mortgage applications index. The purchase index - the one that's relevant to assessing the health of the housing market, showed another decline of 6.5% from the previous week and a 19.6% decline from the same week a year ago. Double digit declines in this number from last year's already low index base indicates to me that the truth about the housing market is that it is starting to collapse again. It's also interesting to note that I'm finally starting to see some "non-conformist" mainstream analysts admit that housing is in trouble. Here's the report: LINK

QE_how_many? While media morons and Wall Street permabulls discuss the timing of the Fed potentially tightening its monetary policy and unwinding its QE programs - based on the logic of a strengthening economy based on arguably fraudulent data, but unarguably wrong data - the real question hanging out there is "who will buy all of the new Treasury issuance once QE2 is done?" This is given that, effectively, the Fed has monetized nearly all of the recent new Treasury issuance with QE2. If QE3 doesn't happen, where will the funding for our Government come from? Assume tax revenue continues to decline, especially inflation-adjusted, and that the Federal Government will never cut actual spending. Until someone can present me with a fully-supported argument explaining how this will happen, expect QE3, then QE4, etc ad nauseum ad dollar collapse...got gold?

No Country For Old Men/The Road. Hate to say it, but the geopolitical vision of Cormac McCarthy as expressed in those two novels is starting to crystalize into a frightening reality. If you think I'm nuts, just take a look at these news reports from from around the world yesterday:

Will The U.S. Attack Libya? Civil Unrest In Bahrain 2 U.S. Soldiers Slain In Germany
Texas Warns Students To Stay Away From Mexico

If you have not read those two novels, I highly recommend doing so this month. They are extraordinarily engaging stories, with what I believe contain highly prescient visions of what could unfold in our world. And Cormac McCarthy is a brilliant writer, both stylistically and cognitively.

Sorry, but I'm just outlining the truth - and it's the truth whether or not it's interpreted as "doom and gloom." My philosophy is that everyone should enjoy what they can, as much as they can, while they can. Capire tutti?

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