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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Yesterday in Gold and Silver

The gold price slowly worked its way higher through all of Far East and early London trading on Monday...and then really caught a bid once the London a.m. gold fix was in at 5:30 a.m. Eastern time...10:30 a.m. GMT.

Then minutes before the Comex open at 8:20 a.m. Eastern, the bullion banks went to work...and that, as they say, was that. Even the smallest of rallies ran into an eager not-for-profit seller...and gold closed down a couple of bucks on the day.

Silver was on a tear all through Far East and early London trading, but ran into the usual resistance once Comex trading began at 8:20 a.m. Eastern. Volume was very heavy...and I'm guessing that the bullion banks may have been doing some short covering.

For the most part, silver and gold had the same price patterns, but silver managed to hold onto some its gains...however JPMorgan made sure that the bulk of them vanished before the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. New York time. Silver was up over a buck for a short time before the Comex opened...and ended the New York trading day up about two bits from its Friday close.

I was surprised how poorly the gold stocks did...but I'm sure that the general weakness in the rest of rest of the equity markets contributed to their performance as well. The HUI finished down 0.88% on the day.

The same can't be said for most silver stocks yesterday...as they were on fire. I was amazed at the huge gains that some of these stocks turned in. Undoubtedly they would have done even better than that if the bullion banks hadn't hammered the silver price at the Comex open.

I would surmise that there's a lot of moment/day traders in some of these smaller cap silver stocks...and at the first sign of a price drop, they will hit the sell button en masse. Needless to say, I won't be one of them.

The dollar traded sideways until around 8:30 a.m. in London, before taking about a 60 point header...hitting its nadir around 7:00 a.m. in New York. From there, an 80 point rally began that ended at precisely 2:00 p.m. Eastern time...and then it basically traded sideways for the rest of the New York session.

If you look at the highs and lows for both gold and silver yesterday, it's a bit of a stretch to say that it was all dollar related...as the highs and lows in the dollar and the PMs don't match at all.

The CME's Daily Delivery report showed that two gold along with twenty silver contracts were posted for delivery tomorrow.

Both GLD and SLV had additions yesterday. GLD's inventory rose 214,588 troy ounces...and SLV was up another big chunk...this time it was 3,319,604 troy ounces.

Over at Switzerland's Zürcher Kantonalbank for the week that was, they didn't add any gold to their gold ETF...but added 126,383 troy ounces of silver. I thank Carl Loeb for these numbers.

For the fifth day in a row, the U.S. Mint had no sales report.

There was a lot of in-and-out activity over at the Comex-approved depositories on Friday...and at the end of the business day, they reported a smallish decline of 42,416 troy ounces of silver. The link to the action is here.

The big overnight increase in silver prices had a huge effect on my bullion dealer's business yesterday, as it was wall-to-wall buyers at his store all day long. He had one of the biggest one-day silver sales days in the history of his business. Price almost no longer matters, as the buyers just want in. One can only image what business may be like when silver goes main-stream. One thing is for sure...there won't be much [if any] silver to sell...because at that point in the cycle, demand will totally swamp supply. I would suspect that it's getting close to that point already.

Washington state reader S.A. was kind enough to slip this Dow vs. Silver graph into my in-box yesterday...and I thought it was more than worth sharing.

Critical Reads

U.S. sets $223B deficit record

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

Today's first story is courtesy of reader Scott Pluschau...and is posted over at the washingtontimes.com website. The federal government posted its largest monthly deficit in history in February, a $223 billion shortfall that put a sharp point on the current fight on Capitol Hill about how deeply to cut this year’s spending.

That one-month figure, which came in a preliminary report from the Congressional Budget Office, dwarfs even the most robust cuts being talked about on the Hill, and underscores just how much work lawmakers have to do to get the government’s finances in balance again. The link is here.

Caught in the Euro Trap: Internal Opposition Grows to Further Bailout Measures

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

Today's next story is a Roy Stephens offering taken from yesterday's news items over at the German website spiegel.de. Angela Merkel can't win when it comes to the euro bailout. Leaders of her own government coalition in parliament openly oppose new measures that could create additional liability for German taxpayers. The chancellor is expected to offer concessions in Brussels, but they could haunt her in state elections. It's a longish piece...and the link is here.

Greek Debt Rating Cut Three Steps to B1 by Moody's on Rising Default Risk

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

Here's another story courtesy of reader Scott Pluschau. This one's posted over at Bloomberg. The cost of insuring Greek debt against default rose to a record after Moody’s Investors Service cut the country’s credit rating by three notches. The Finance Ministry in Athens called the move “completely unjustified.” Moody’s said lagging tax collection and “implementation risks” would make it more difficult to reach budget-cutting targets in a 110 billion-euro ($154 billion) bailout.

I still think that Greece [along with the rest of the PIIGS] is done for...and will have to withdraw from the EU...and the Euro. The link to the story is here.

Flat-Earth European Central Bank misreads oil spike again, and kicks Spain in the teeth

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

Roy Stephens sent me this Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering out of yesterday edition of The Telegraph. Ambrose, none to happy with ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet about his utterances on higher interest rates, gets up on his soap box and really gets going.

The European Central Bank has once again risen to the bait. Faced with an oil supply shock that deflates incomes, it plans to tighten the vice yet further with a knee-jerk rate rise in April.

Spain is now being whacked again. One-year Euribor rates jumped 14 basis points to 1.92pc within hours after ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet uttered the code words “strong vigilance”. As the ECB knows, this is the rate used to price most Spanish mortgages...and the Spanish press is up in arms.

This is a longish commentary for Ambrose...but if you have the time, it's worth the read...and the link is here.

Spanish town reintroduces peseta

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

While Ambrose Evans-Pritchard was waxing philosophical about Spain in one section of The Telegraph yesterday, columnist Fiona Govan filed this story from Madrid in another section. This story is courtesy of reader 'David in California'.

The townsfolk of Mugardos in northwestern Spain are being encouraged to search out forgotten stashes of the defunct currency and to spend it in local shops. More than 60 shops in the fishing village on the rugged Galician coast have agreed to accept pesetas alongside the euro in an attempt to encourage spending during a time of economic crisis.

This is kind of cute...and I hope it catches on in the rest of the country, because one of these days they're going to using that currency again for real. This is a very short, but very interesting piece...and the link is here.

Gaddafi Doubles Down, More Dangerous Than Ever

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

The ever-vigilant Roy Stephens has the first of two stories about Libya. This first one is written by Pepe Escobar over at the Asia Times...and is posted on the alternet.org website.

You're Muammar Gaddafi, and you're sitting in your Bab al-Azizia bunker sipping green tea and surveying the odds of staying in power. Let's see. You control some neighborhoods in Tripoli; some cities in the far west, near the Tunisian border; your birthplace, Sirte. And that's it.

This is a wonderful piece...and the joy of it is, that it isn't very long...and definitely worth the read. The link is here.

Walker's World: Gadhafi fights back

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

Roy's second piece on Libya is written by UPI Editor Emeritus Martin Walker...and it isn't quite as wonderful as the previous piece out of the Asia Times. After that piece, it's more like a cold shower. It's also more of read...but it's worth it as well.

Above all, Gadhafi has stalled the momentum of the revolution and dented the heady claim that the Arab Spring was unstoppable. He has held out the prospect, however slim and however unsavory, that tyranny can survive and that the bad guys can still win. The link is here.

My remaining stories, of which there are still quite a few, are all precious metals related in one form or another.

Louis Yamada - $80 Silver, $2,000 Gold & $140 Oil

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

Smith Barney's technical research chief, Louise Yamada, told King World News that her target prices for gold are $1,500 and then $2,000, for silver $40 and eventually $80, and for oil $115 and eventually $140. You can find excerpts from the interview at the KWN Internet site...and the link is here.

Utah House stamps gold, silver as legal tender

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

Italian reader Osvaldo Ballabio provides our next reading material. I ran a similar story to this last week. It was a yahoo.com offering...but this one comes right from the source itself...The Salt Lake Tribune...and fleshes out the yahoo.com story a bit...and has been updated from its original release date. The link is here.

As Silver Prices Soar, Silver Coins Get Smaller

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

Reader Scott Carpenter sent along this next item of interest that's posted over at the goldandsilverblog.com website. Last month, the Perth Mint of Australia began selling one-tenth ounce Silver Koala coins. Previously, this series had been offered in sizes ranging from one-half ounce to 1 kilo. Other numismatic and bullion coin offerings from the Perth Mint have also been available in sizes starting at one-half ounce, but this seems to be the first instance that a one-tenth ounce size has been available.

Somewhere, someplace, I have a small handful of 1 gram J&M wafers...complete with individual serial numbers! The more things change, the more they stay the same. The link is here.

Portfolio's true value is in ounces, not dollars, John Embry says

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

Here's another interview posted over at King World News...and I thank Chris Powell for [once again] saving me the trouble of writing the preamble..."Sprott Asset Management's John Embry tells Eric King that demands for delivery could explode the derivatives-fueled suppression of silver, that other governments are likely to devalue their own currencies to support the U.S. dollar if it starts breaking down too much, that such devaluation can only send the precious metals upward, and that the true measure of an investment portfolio isn't any dollar figure but its total ounces of precious metal. The interview is 12 minutes long and you can listen to it at the KWN website...and the link to this must listen interview is here."

Richard Russell - Gold to $6,000 as Media Ridicules

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

Here's a blog that Eric King sent me late last night. It is, as the title states, by the 'R' Man himself...and it's worth the read as well. The link is here.

The Constraints on Silver Supply - Bob Quartermain

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

It's more than slightly embarrassing when a reader sends you something from your own website that you aren't aware of. Such was the case with Washington state reader S.A...who sent me the following Casey Research video of ex-Silver Standard Resources Chairman Bob Quartermain.

At the Casey Research Gold and Resource Summit, Bob Quartermain spoke about the constraints facing the silver supply today, “Mine supply doesn’t meet demand...and in many of the new applications, silver isn’t being recycled, so it’s not going to come back into the scrap supply chain...We’ll have to go out and find new mines or new sources for silver; and that can only speak to higher prices.”

The video clip runs 9:18...and is well worth your time...and the link is here.

Silver Shocker: Ted Butler

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

Lastly today, comes the headline story from today's column. If you remember from my Saturday column, the Bank Participation Report was so far beyond anything I'd been expecting...and because I hadn't spoken to Ted about it, and because the report came out many hours after Friday's Commitment of Traders Report...I just completely passed on it...and said I was doing so.

I read other columnist's commentaries on this issue over the weekend...and none of them had a clue, either. I knew that I would have to wait until silver analyst Ted Butler's weekly commentary came out on Saturday, before I would have a chance to write about it intelligently in this column today.

I'm ever so grateful that I don't have to say a word about...as Ted has published all of it in the clear. If you don't have a complete grasp of this issue after you've read this essay at least twice...don't be surprised, as you're probably in good company.

It was Ted who stumbled upon the Bank Participation Report back in 2008...and when it comes to this, or any other facet of the silver market...he's da man! Every word that's ever been written about the silver manipulation story, came from him first. So I talk to him every day...and pass on what I think is of critical importance...as Ted hardly ever writes in the public domain anymore.

This is a must read...and you should read it many times. I already have...and will be reading it again many more times. And please don't e-mail me asking for any clarification, as it's very convoluted...and everything you need to know to understand what happened, is contained in Ted's essay...and the link is here.

If you wish to complain to the appropriate authorities about this...Ted has provided the necessary e-mail addresses at the bottom of his essay for you to do exactly that. You can rest assured that I will be sending my comments in. This is now beyond ridiculous.

The Funnies

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

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The Wrap

Ed_GSD
March 8, 2011 11:08am GMT

Since last August, silver has outperformed gold by a factor of five. During this time, gold rose a very respectable 20%...while silver gained nearly 100%. In simple terms, this means an investment in silver six months ago would have returned five times more profit than an investment in gold. If I hadn't been beating on the switch-to-silver-from-gold drum during this entire time, I would have been negligent.- Ted Butler, butlerresearch.com

Monday's trading action in both gold and silver started off in the Far East pretty much the same as it does every week...by rising in price. Then the usual suspects make an appearance...and the rallies vanished. This Monday's trading pattern proved to be no different.

The preliminary volume numbers shows about 150,000 contracts, net of all roll-overs, were traded yesterday...which isn't overly heavy...and the preliminary open interest number doesn't look too bad at all. I'll be more than interested in what the final number is when it's posted on the CME's website later this morning.

Friday's final open interest number in gold shows that o.i. rose by only 2,655 contracts which, considering the nice rally we had on that day, is surprisingly low.

Silver's preliminary volume numbers shows that just under 80,000 contracts net were traded yesterday which, compared to gold, is a very large number. The preliminary open interest number is a shockingly small 59 contracts. I would surmise from this, that we'll see a big decline in silver's final open interest for Monday when it's posted this a.m. As I mentioned in my silver commentary at the top of the column, I suspected that there was short covering going on all day long by JPMorgan yesterday...and that looks like it will turn out to be the case. I'll let you know tomorrow.

Silver had a big rally on Friday...and the final open interest number for that day was a rather chunky 3,564 contracts...so that rally did not go unopposed by the bullion banks. Maybe they spent all their time on Monday undoing those short positions they put on, on Friday...and we won't know that for sure until Friday's Commitment of Traders report.

The backwardation situation in silver is pretty much unchanged from Friday and Thursday. The final settlement numbers from yesterday's trading activity shows that the later delivery months are still selling for a one cent premium to March...and then slip into backwardation for the December 2011 delivery month. The backwardation between March 2011 and December 2015 is about the same as Friday's...$1.085. Here's the link to the Silver Futures Settlement page, so you can see for yourself.

There are 1,595 silver contracts still open in the March delivery month...and at the rate the shorts are delivering to the longs, it will take the rest of this month to complete the process. Normally almost all these deliveries are done within in the first couple of trading days in March. Not this time...and that's what makes this delivery month in silver a real cliff-hanger.

Here's the 3-year silver chart...and you can see that we are in wildly overbought territory. The MACD line is way up there...as is the RSI. I'm sure that JPMorgan et al would love to bomb this market...and they just might give it the old college try...as those holding short positions are getting eaten alive. But can they...or will they? If they do, I would suspect that the sell-off will be very short...and very shallow. If it does come to pass, it's just another buying opportunity which I will use to good advantage. I hope you do, too.

Gold, which had been down throughout all of Far East trading, began to rally a couple of hours before London opened...and is now up from yesterday's close. Silver, also down in Far East trading...is really on a tear...and, as of 5:07 a.m. Eastern, is 70 cents off its overnight low.

I haven't got a clue what the U.S. bullion banks have in store for us during Tuesday's trading day...but we'll find out soon enough once the Comex opens for business at 8:20 a.m. Eastern.

See you tomorrow.

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