Re: News????? - more analyse
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 01, 2011 11:05AM
Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.
I am disappointed with this report. The loss is about what I had expected and I think the platform for a solid 2011 is in place. But I think shareholders deserve a more thorough breakdown of the operating results given that we have waited for more than a year while the company was going through the painful learning curve at both mills. Just stating that the company is in the development stage and all revenues are credited against capital expenditures is not acceptable. Its like saying the dog ate my homework.
Most junior mines will credit development expenditures on the mine construction phase and perhaps during plant commissioning, but once they commence actual production activity they will then revert to breaking down their actual operating results at least on a quarterly basis. Now I understand that ECU envisions all of the current ops as a means to support a more active exploration program. Fine. We still need to know how the company is managing on those operations since that ability is crucial to the survival of the company going forward and our ability to value the potential for the stock.
Based on what has been reported it was a no surprise report. I am somewhat concerned about the high admin costs and would like to see the company reign that in. The currency differential hurt us and this will become less of an issue when the production revenues climb since what we lose in the conversion to Canadian dollars we gain on the front end in higher gold and silver prices. The interest expense remains a huge millstone hanging around the corporate neck and I think some investors will not touch this stock no matter how attractive the resources may be, until the balance sheet is cleaned up. Once again the cure will come from higher production and increased cash flow generation, to allow some surplus funding to pay down that debt load.
I did not see anything in that report that was a shock. Going forward I expect two possible outcomes can move this stock higher in a hurry:
1) Success at the end of the drill bit to put more discovery sizzle into the stock
2) Improvement in operating performance to increase production and lower costs
Considering that silver ranged between $20-$30 at the time those financial results were covering, I could easily see a much stronger Q1 result. Tune the mills to generate more recovered metals for each ton processed, and run more tons through the mills in total, and there is your basis for a breakout quarter. Get it done ECU.
I bought more shares today @ 94 cents and now have a sizeable trading position in addition to my core holdings. I will still look to take profits on the upswing through $1.10 which I still expect will happen this spring. My comments are my own personal opinion. ECU runs a paid advertisement on my website.
cheers!
mike