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Message: Ed Steer this morning

U.S. Will Resolve Debt by Returning to Gold Standard: James Grant

"I was very encouraged by the fact that silver didn't close below $40...and every attempt to sell it down below that level ran into serious buying."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Gold didn't have a very exciting day yesterday...but it did manage to close on the positive side of the ledger, so I guess we should be thankful to JPMorgan et al for these small mercies.

The high for the day was in around 9:00 a.m. Eastern time...and then got sold off a bit starting the moment that the London bullion market closed at 4:00 p.m. local time...which is 11:00 a.m. in New York.

The price was briefly below Tuesday's closing price, but recovered a few dollars going into the close of electronic trading at 5:15 p.m. Eastern. Volume was pretty light.

Silver's price movements were about the same as gold's...right down to the sell-off after the London closed. From that New York low, silver recovered almost back to its high of the day, which I found very encouraging. I'm also glad to see the price put some distance between it and the $40 mark as well.

The dollar didn't do a whole lot of anything yesterday...and the scale of the graph makes the price action look more spectacular than it actually was.

The selling pressure on both gold and silver prices that began at the close of London trading at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time, is more than obvious on the graph below. And even though the gold price managed to squeeze out a small gain on the day, the gold stocks couldn't manage the same feat...with the HUI finishing down a smallish 0.45%. For the most part, the silver stocks had a much better time of it.

The CME's Daily Delivery report showed that 82 gold, along with 3 silver contracts, were posted for delivery on Friday.

Both ETFs showed declines for the second day running. GLD was down a chunky 107,251 ounces...while SLV had an eye-watering withdrawal of 7,806,880 troy ounces...which I'd bet is probably the biggest one-day drop in SLV history. I would also guess that it had little to do with the big price sell-offs of Monday and Tuesday. Someone obviously needed a chunk of silver in a hurry, because the price drop over the last couple of days certainly wouldn't account for a withdrawal of this size.

The U.S. Mint had a smallish sales report yesterday. They sold another 1,000 ounces of gold eagles, along with 1,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes.

For the third day in a row, the Comex-approved depositories did not receive a single ounce of silver and...for the third day in a row, they shipped more out the door. On Tuesday they shipped out 249,418 troy ounces of the stuff. The link to that action is here.

Combine the approximately 1.5 million ounces of silver shipped from the Comex warehouses over the last two reporting day...along with the 8.8 million withdrawn from SLV since Monday...and it's obvious that over 10 million ounces of silver have disappeared to parts unknown in the last three business days. As Ted Butler pointed out, frantic activity like this is not a sign of a market in surplus, it's indicative of a market that is short of physical product to deliver.

My bullion dealer had another huge day on Wednesday that was even bigger than the one he had on Monday. It's obvious that investors are buying the dips...not only in the silver shares, but in the physical metal itself.

¤ Critical Reads

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U.S. Economic Optimism Plummets in March

My first story today, posted over at gallup.com, is one I stole from yesterday's edition of the King Report.

Americans' optimism about the future direction of the U.S. economy plunged in March for the second month in a row, as the percentage of Americans saying the economy is "getting better" fell to 33% -- down from 41% in January. It is also down three points from the 36% of March 2010.

Optimism in March essentially matches last year's low points: 32% in July, 33% in August, and 32% in September. However, it remains higher than it was throughout 2008 and early 2009.

There's a lot of good stuff in here...including a lot of graphs...and the link is here.

Inflation Actually Near 10% Using Older Measure

Today's next story is a posting over at cnbc.com that was sent to me by reader Scott Pluschau.

Inflation, using the reporting methodologies in place before 1980, hit an annual rate of 9.6 percent in February, according to the Shadow Statistics newsletter, written by John Williams.

“Given ongoing inflation problems with food and the spreading impact of higher oil-related costs in the broad economy, reporting risk is to the upside of consensus expectation for March's CPI report,” said Williams, citing a 10 percent jump in gasoline prices in March, in the note.

This is well worth the read...and the link is here.

Banks facing $3.6 trillion 'wall of maturing debt', IMF Report says

Roy Stephens provides the next story out of yesterday's edition of The Telegraph.

Debt-laden banks are the biggest threat to global financial stability and they must refinance a $3.6 trillion "wall of maturing debt" which comes due in the next two years, the International Monetary Fund said in its Global Financial Stability Report.

Government debt was generally high...and on a worryingly upward path in many advanced economies, the IMF said. It repeated its warning that the United States and Japan faced particularly dangerous debt dynamics.

This story is certainly worth skimming...and the link is here.

PIIGS ahoy!

Reader U.D. sent this piece out yesterday...and it's a fairly longish read by columnist Martin Hutchinson...and is posted over at the prudentbear.com website.

Martin states that..."Because of the delusory fiscal and monetary policies of the last few years, the protection Britain and the United States would normally receive from issuing their own currencies will shortly disappear. The two countries will then be revealed as the biggest PIIGS of all."

If you have the time, this is well worth the read...and the link is here.

China inflation threat underestimated

China is poised to become an "exporter of inflation to the rest of world", according to Legal & General Investment Management [LGIM], which warned that the threat from rising prices in the world's second-biggest economy is underestimated.

This is another story from The Telegraph late last night that's also courtesy of reader Roy Stephens...and the link is here.

Beijing March New House Prices Plunge 26.7% M/M

Here's a story that was sent to me by Casey Research's resident economist, Bud Conrad yesterday. It's a piece posted at imarketnews.com that was filed from Beijing on Monday.

It's a very short piece...and the headline pretty much says it all. The link is here.

Assange praises Indian newspaper's use of WikiLeaks disclosures

Here's an interesting story that was posted in The Guardian yesterday...and I thank Swiss reader G.B. for sending it along.

US embassy cables released by WikiLeaks have made a huge impact in India. The Hindu began running stories based on the cables on 15 March, resulting in 21 front page scoops. The government has been rocked by some of the revelations, with calls for the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, to resign.

The Hindu's editor-in-chief, N. Ram, says: "The cables we have worked on so far expose the venal and sordid underbelly of India, which is corrupt, non-transparent, and vulnerable to manipulation by the big powers, in particular the United States."

It's a short read...and the link is here.

Gold and silver market trends for 2010-GFMS

Here's a Reuters piece that was sent to me by Washington state reader S.A...and was filed from London yesterday.

Demand for gold bars grew strongly last year, helping lift overall physical investment despite weaker inflows into exchange-traded funds, metals consultancy GFMS said in its annual Gold Report on Wednesday.

I added up the four biggest demand areas in this report...China, India, industrial use and investment demand...and it came to 2,455 tonnes. This represents 90% of 2010 mine output.

This short report is a must read...and the link is here.

More Indian temples to melt gold

Following the footsteps of the famous Naina Devi and Chamunda Devi shrines in the state, other major temples in Himachal Pradesh, north India are expected to come up with gold melting plans.

According to state-controlled temple trust, it has come out with a provision that allows temple trusts to melt tonnes of gold and silver lying in their coffers and convert them into coins and mementoes for sale.

This very interesting story is courtesy of reader 'David in California'...and was filed from Simla...and posted at the commodityonline.com website yesterday. It gives an insight into the Indian gold market that not even I've seen before...and it's worth reading. The link is here.

Indian Investors Switch to Silver From Gold

Thanks to Alberta reader B.E.O...here's a story filed from New Delhi that showed up in yesterday's edition of The Wall Street Journal. He found it posted over at sprott.com in the wee hours of this morning. The headline pretty much says it all...and I think that it might be worth your time running through it. This is something Ted Butler has been advocating for years...and he's been right about that in spades...and I'm glad I took his advice. The link is here.

Institutions way under-invested in gold, Rickards tells King World News

I stole the headline...and the preamble from a GATA release yesterday.

In the KWN interview, market intelligence analyst Jim Rickards makes a couple of compelling observations: Big financial institutions hardly own any gold at all, so the metal can't be in a bubble and, China is trying to get as much gold as it can through mining, getting gold at the cost of mining rather than in the market, where the Chinese bid could double the gold price and cause a lot of problems. Still, the Chinese bid puts a floor under gold.

It's a short blog...and a must read...and the link is here.

U.S. Will Resolve Debt by Returning to Gold Standard: James Grant

Here's a King World News blog with the world-renowned Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer.

When asked about gold specifically Grant stated,“To me the gold price takes the form of a very uncomplicated formula, and all you have to do is divide one by ‘n.’ And ‘n’...I’m glad you ask...is the world’s trust in the institution of paper money and in the capacity of people like Ben Bernanke to manage it. So the smaller ‘n’, the bigger the price. One divided by a receding number is the definition of a bull market.

This is a must read from one end to the other...and the link is here.

Conversations with Casey: Doug Casey on Phyles

My last posting of the day is not about gold...but is a must read nonetheless. It's yesterday's edition of Conversations with Casey. I haven't read the whole thing yet, but I can tell you that it's Doug at his finest.

Doug, as always, is interviewed by Louis James, the Editor of Casey Research's International Speculator. This week's topic of discussion is phyles. Louis asks Doug..."What is a phyle, and why does it matter?"

It's a longish read...but well worth your time...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

The thing to remember is that if my readings on physical silver conditions are correct, that will go a long way to explaining why I think the nice price pop could be a big one.Few of us have much experience with pricing in a shortage in general...and especially in silver. Therefore, it may be hard to grasp just how strongly prices can react in a genuine shortfall. The best example currently is in the rare earths, where prices have moved by unprecedented amounts recently. I’m not trying to be sensational in projecting price; I’m just trying to point out that in a genuine commodity shortage, the price action must be sensational.- silver analyst Ted Butler, April 13, 2011

Gold volume yesterday was a bit over 110,000 contracts net of all roll-overs...and the preliminary open interest number was a pleasantly small 2,763 contracts. Today's final o.i. number should make for very happy reading.

Gold's final open interest number for Tuesday's trading day showed a decline of 2,697 contracts...which is a huge drop from +5,395 preliminary o.i. number. But, to tell you the truth, both Ted and I were hoping for better than that. Hopefully tomorrow's Commitment of Traders report will show more detail of who the longs and the shorts were, as this data will be in it.

Silver net volume yesterday was a hair under 70,000 contracts...but the o.i. number was a very chunky 4,259 contracts, which is a lot considering the price action on Wednesday. How that number resolves itself later this a.m. remains to be seen.

Silver's final open interest number for Tuesday's trading day showed a drop of 1,102 contracts, which is a far cry from the +5,821 contract preliminary number.

The backwardation situation in silver remains basically unchanged from what it was on Tuesday.

As I mentioned above...and in yesterday's column...I was very encouraged by the fact that silver didn't close below $40...and every attempt to sell it down below that level ran into serious buying.

In his letter to his paying subscribers yesterday, Ted pointed out he following..."Price action over the past few days are making me think we may have already seen the shake out. The only question in my mind is...do we get the big up-move forthwith...or after a quick shakeout?"

Judging by the price activity in silver while North America slept, it looks pretty much like we've seen the bottom for this move down...but I wouldn't bet the ranch on that until I see what the U.S. bullion banks do during Comex trading today. There are lots of examples [Monday being the latest] where the silver price soared overnight, only to be taken down in London and New York later the same day. So I'll keep the party favours on the shelf for the moment...but within easy reach.

As of 4:45 a.m. Eastern time, silver is up 46 cents...and gold is up five bucks. Volume in gold is pretty light...and, in silver, it's pretty decent...so this little pop in the silver price is not going unopposed.

Here's the 1-year silver chart updated with Wednesday's price action. It's still way overbought...but, like I said yesterday, it may not matter anymore. I would think we'll find out if that's the case in pretty short order.

I hope your Thursday goes well...and I'll see you tomorrow.

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